prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 2 Alabama 55 63.2, 144 Utah State 0 11.0
81% 8 Oklahoma 45 61.1, 206 Texas - El Paso 13 8.9
76% 131 Austin Peay 63 66.6, 261 Presbyterian 0 22.9
71% 84 Montana 47 54.4, 246 Northwestern State 0 16.4
71% 80 Western Kentucky 49 52.7, 236 Hawaii 17 21.3
71% 47 Eastern Washington 36 62.2, 224 Tennessee State 29 28.9
71% 39 Minnesota 38 49.3, 196 New Mexico State 0 11.8
71% 34 Miami - Florida 70 62.2, 223 Bethune - Cookman 13 23.5
71% 30 California - Los Angel 45 58.0, 189 Bowling Green 17 23.1
71% 24 Texas 52 61.6, 177 Northeast Louisiana 10 25.5
71% 12 James Madison 44 57.4, 130 Middle Tennessee State 7 20.4
71% 11 North Dakota State 56 55.7, 250 Drake 14 10.1
71% 4 Michigan 51 57.3, 126 Colorado State 7 22.4
70% 110 Tulane 42 56.7, 235 Massachusetts 10 25.9
70% 86 Toledo 37 58.9, 251 Long Island 0 24.7
70% 68 Texas Tech 63 54.0, 218 Murray State 10 26.0
70% 61 Villanova 45 50.5, 233 Lehigh 17 15.4
70% 56 Fresno State 35 56.0, 219 California Poly 7 24.4
70% 54 Southern California 66 52.9, 182 Rice 14 23.1
70% 41 Arizona State 40 53.6, 181 Northern Arizona 3 23.9
70% 22 Wake Forest 44 63.5, 165 Virginia Military 10 34.6
70% 20 Mississippi 28 53.2, 151 Troy State 10 24.4
70% 14 Iowa State 42 55.6, 185 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 22.3
69% 122 William & Mary 41 44.2, 210 North Carolina - Charl 24 21.7
69% 66 Central Florida 56 49.3, 187 South Carolina State 10 25.9
69% 63 Montana State 40 44.4, 188 McNeese State 17 17.8
69% 49 Washington State 24 50.6, 171 Idaho 17 24.9
69% 27 Tennessee 59 52.0, 128 Ball State 10 30.3
69% 18 Baylor 69 47.0, 155 Albany 10 22.7
69% 13 Wisconsin 38 43.1, 137 Illinois State 0 17.2
69% 10 Clemson 41 47.7, 113 Georgia Tech 10 22.1
69% 9 Oklahoma State 58 49.6, 95 Central Michigan 44 25.0
69% 1 Georgia 49 48.3, 21 Oregon 3 22.9
68% 142 Towson 14 46.0, 252 Bucknell 13 22.6
67% 160 Fordham 48 49.8, 257 Wagner 31 29.7
67% 120 Northern Illinois 34 48.1, 245 Eastern Illinois 27 27.2
67% 92 Alabama - Birmingham 59 52.7, 205 Alabama A&M 0 32.6
67% 83 Marshall 55 49.3, 198 Norfolk State 3 28.9
67% 77 Missouri 52 53.5, 154 Louisiana Tech 24 34.1
67% 62 Washington 45 48.8, 129 Kent State 20 28.6
67% 1 Georgia 49 45.8, 21 Oregon 3 25.4
66% 208 Abilene Christian 28 44.0, 255 Lamar 14 25.4
66% 203 Hampton 31 42.5, 253 Howard 28 24.1
66% 199 Prairie View 40 51.8, 244 Texas Southern 23 35.1
66% 138 Youngstown State 31 43.1, 209 Duquesne 14 25.3
66% 73 Liberty 29 46.0, 192 Southern Mississippi 27 26.8
66% 31 Brigham Young 50 49.9, 141 South Florida 21 31.8
66% 29 Kentucky 37 44.7, 109 Miami - Ohio 13 25.7
66% 17 Texas A&M 31 46.0, 98 Sam Houston State 0 26.6
65% 168 Georgia Southern 59 42.6, 248 Morgan State 7 24.5
65% 102 Stanford 41 42.6, 204 Colgate 10 24.3
65% 19 Michigan State 35 48.6, 87 Western Michigan 13 31.7
64% 111 Jacksonville State 35 48.4, 186 Davidson 17 33.4
64% 23 Auburn 42 43.1, 105 Mercer 16 28.7
63% 140 Tennessee - Martin 42 46.8, 170 Western Illinois 25 34.1
63% 134 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 38.4, 193 Wofford 0 24.1
63% 127 Nevada - Reno 38 36.2, 180 Texas State - San Marc 14 22.4
63% 3 Ohio State 21 49.9, 5 Notre Dame 10 37.8
62% 157 Kansas 56 45.9, 239 Tennessee Tech 10 34.5
62% 150 Duke 30 43.7, 201 Temple 0 32.0
62% 64 Maryland 31 46.2, 118 Buffalo 10 35.0
62% 55 Southern Methodist 48 44.9, 114 North Texas 10 34.8
62% 45 Louisiana - Lafayette 24 50.5, 104 Southeast Louisiana 7 39.3
62% 44 Mississippi State 49 43.6, 90 Memphis 23 31.9
62% 36 Kansas State 34 40.2, 97 South Dakota 0 27.2
62% 32 Vanderbilt 42 43.5, 119 Elon 31 30.8
62% 16 Pittsburgh 38 42.0, 60 West Virginia 31 29.3
61% 88 South Carolina 35 40.9, 112 Georgia State 14 30.8
61% 57 Virginia 34 43.8, 121 Richmond 17 33.3
61% 40 Houston 37 45.8, 93 Texas - San Antonio 35 36.9
61% 28 North Carolina State 21 43.1, 91 East Carolina 20 32.7
60% 175 Campbell 29 41.3, 202 The Citadel 10 32.8
60% 74 Nebraska 38 36.2, 115 North Dakota 17 27.6
59% 166 Indiana State 17 40.5, 195 North Alabama 14 33.0
59% 99 Missouri State 27 48.5, 162 Central Arkansas 14 41.8
59% 75 California 34 36.6, 116 California - Davis 13 28.8
57% 53 Coastal Carolina 38 40.9, 67 Army 28 35.6
56% 227 Tarleton State 29 44.4, 247 Mississippi Valley Sta 13 39.1
56% 174 Arkansas State 58 40.4, 230 Grambling 3 35.5
55% 123 Eastern Michigan 42 41.0, 161 Eastern Kentucky 34 36.6
53% 25 Iowa 7 34.5, 37 South Dakota State 3 32.2
52% 183 Jackson State 59 30.4, 172 Florida A&M 3 29.1
52% 147 San Jose State 21 36.5, 156 Portland State 17 34.4
52% 70 Texas Christian 38 37.2, 94 Colorado 13 36.0
51% 215 Dayton 22 41.0, 216 Robert Morris 20 40.5
51% 50 Air Force 48 27.6, 69 Northern Iowa 17 26.3
51% 43 North Carolina 63 45.1, 48 Appalachian State 61 44.7
51% 15 Penn State 35 34.6, 33 Purdue 31 33.4
50% 159 New Hampshire 31 36.2, 132 Monmouth 21 36.0
50% 46 Oregon State 34 38.5, 35 Boise State 17 38.1
50% 51 Florida State 24 34.9, 38 Louisiana State 23 35.3
48% 228 Georgetown 43 30.8, 249 Marist 12 32.7
48% 222 Southern Utah 44 39.3, 234 Saint Thomas - Minneso 13 40.8
46% 148 Delaware 14 29.2, 117 Navy 7 32.4
46% 42 Florida 29 37.1, 7 Utah 26 40.4
45% 163 South Alabama 48 33.0, 145 Nicholls State 7 37.5
45% 100 Syracuse 31 35.2, 59 Louisville 7 39.1
45% 96 Indiana 23 27.9, 52 Illinois 20 31.8
44% 211 Lafayette 6 24.6, 176 Sacred Heart 0 29.9
44% 179 Connecticut 28 31.0, 207 Central Connecticut 3 35.5
44% 152 Ohio 41 30.0, 101 Florida Atlantic 38 34.9
43% 26 Arkansas 31 34.9, 6 Cincinnati 24 40.7
42% 153 Rhode Island 35 29.6, 146 Stony Brook 14 36.8
41% 212 Florida International 38 33.6, 200 Bryant 37 41.2
41% 107 Rutgers 22 27.4, 89 Boston College 21 35.5
40% 136 Incarnate Word 64 38.9, 79 Southern Illinois 29 47.4
39% 217 Stephen F. Austin 31 26.6, 213 Alcorn State 27 36.5
39% 184 Western Carolina 52 37.4, 173 Charleston Southern 38 46.4
39% 139 Old Dominion 20 30.9, 85 Virginia Tech 17 41.4
38% 220 Akron 30 28.0, 190 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 40.8
37% 225 North Carolina Central 28 26.6, 158 North Carolina A&T 13 41.3
37% 178 New Mexico 41 26.0, 124 Maine 0 40.3
36% 169 Wyoming 40 22.2, 78 Tulsa 37 38.2
36% 164 Samford 27 38.0, 81 Kennesaw State 17 51.8
36% 135 Arizona 38 24.5, 58 San Diego State 20 40.8
31% 260 Houston Baptist 46 27.3, 226 Northern Colorado 34 51.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
33 1.00 64 1.27 17 1.41 2 1.22 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 116 90 73.4 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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