2022 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 88%  68 Marshall                28 29.0,   157 Connecticut             14 11.2
 83%  72 Boise State             35 37.4,   129 North Texas             32 23.3
 82%  14 Louisiana State         63 36.2,    51 Purdue                   7 25.5
 73%  13 Notre Dame              45 35.2,    39 South Carolina          38 23.9
 71% 138 Southern Mississippi    38 29.9,   182 Rice                    24 21.6
 71%  81 Memphis                 38 36.1,   124 Utah State              10 29.0
 71%  27 Wake Forest             27 37.4,    48 Missouri                17 30.0
 70% 103 Alabama - Birmingham    24 25.7,   139 Miami - Ohio            20 19.4
 70%  49 Arkansas                55 40.4,    55 Kansas                  53 33.1
 70%  38 North Dakota State      35 47.5,    25 Incarnate Word          32 38.4
 70%  26 Minnesota               28 27.1,    61 Syracuse                20 20.6
 70%  11 Florida State           35 37.1,    24 Oklahoma                32 30.2
 70%   4 Tennessee               31 40.6,    15 Clemson                 14 32.4
 68%  22 Oregon State            30 34.8,    37 Florida                  3 29.9
 68%  18 Oregon                  28 40.3,    45 North Carolina          27 35.9
 67%   7 Alabama                 45 32.8,     6 Kansas State            20 26.3
 66%  64 Houston                 23 36.3,    94 Louisiana - Lafayette   16 31.8
 64% 100 Ohio                    30 29.1,   134 Wyoming                 27 25.0
 64%  33 South Dakota State      39 39.2,    17 Montana State           18 34.8
 64%  19 Louisville              24 26.6,    47 Cincinnati               7 22.6
 61%  88 East Carolina           53 35.4,   105 Coastal Carolina        29 32.9
 61%  35 Wisconsin               24 28.4,    40 Oklahoma State          17 25.7
 61%   1 Georgia                 42 35.9,     2 Ohio State              41 33.6
 60% 141 New Mexico State        24 30.2,   166 Bowling Green           19 27.8
 60%  32 Pittsburgh              37 36.2,    41 California - Los Angel  35 34.2
 56%  23 Mississippi State       19 24.2,    21 Illinois                10 22.7
 55%  79 Brigham Young           24 39.1,    73 Southern Methodist      23 38.0

 48%  43 Iowa                    21 15.6,    36 Kentucky                 0 16.1
 48%   9 Penn State              35 29.0,    10 Utah                    21 29.5
 45%  83 Western Kentucky        44 28.9,    62 South Alabama           23 30.1
 41% 121 Toledo                  21 28.9,   106 Liberty                 19 30.8
 40% 135 Buffalo                 23 32.2,   109 Georgia Southern        21 34.5
 40%  44 Maryland                16 22.6,    46 North Carolina State    12 25.0
 39%  65 Troy State              18 26.6,    60 Texas - San Antonio     12 29.2
 39%  59 Duke                    30 31.4,    50 Central Florida         13 33.9
 34%  28 Texas Tech              42 34.3,    31 Mississippi             25 38.1
 32% 127 Middle Tennessee State  25 21.3,   111 San Diego State         23 27.0
 31%  58 Fresno State            29 24.1,    34 Washington State         6 29.6
 30% 130 Eastern Michigan        41 25.1,    99 San Jose State          27 32.1
 30%  66 Air Force               30 20.6,    20 Baylor                  15 27.4
 30%   5 Texas Christian         51 31.6,     3 Michigan                45 39.1
 29% 154 North Carolina Central  41 23.6,   102 Jackson State           34 34.4
 29%  29 Tulane                  46 33.0,    12 Southern California     45 40.7
 29%  16 Washington              27 29.2,     8 Texas                   20 37.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.59  18 1.03  14 0.91   3 1.18   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  44  27  29.2 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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