prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 88% 68 Marshall 28 29.0, 157 Connecticut 14 11.2 83% 72 Boise State 35 37.4, 129 North Texas 32 23.3 82% 14 Louisiana State 63 36.2, 51 Purdue 7 25.5 73% 13 Notre Dame 45 35.2, 39 South Carolina 38 23.9 71% 138 Southern Mississippi 38 29.9, 182 Rice 24 21.6 71% 81 Memphis 38 36.1, 124 Utah State 10 29.0 71% 27 Wake Forest 27 37.4, 48 Missouri 17 30.0 70% 103 Alabama - Birmingham 24 25.7, 139 Miami - Ohio 20 19.4 70% 49 Arkansas 55 40.4, 55 Kansas 53 33.1 70% 38 North Dakota State 35 47.5, 25 Incarnate Word 32 38.4 70% 26 Minnesota 28 27.1, 61 Syracuse 20 20.6 70% 11 Florida State 35 37.1, 24 Oklahoma 32 30.2 70% 4 Tennessee 31 40.6, 15 Clemson 14 32.4 68% 22 Oregon State 30 34.8, 37 Florida 3 29.9 68% 18 Oregon 28 40.3, 45 North Carolina 27 35.9 67% 7 Alabama 45 32.8, 6 Kansas State 20 26.3 66% 64 Houston 23 36.3, 94 Louisiana - Lafayette 16 31.8 64% 100 Ohio 30 29.1, 134 Wyoming 27 25.0 64% 33 South Dakota State 39 39.2, 17 Montana State 18 34.8 64% 19 Louisville 24 26.6, 47 Cincinnati 7 22.6 61% 88 East Carolina 53 35.4, 105 Coastal Carolina 29 32.9 61% 35 Wisconsin 24 28.4, 40 Oklahoma State 17 25.7 61% 1 Georgia 42 35.9, 2 Ohio State 41 33.6 60% 141 New Mexico State 24 30.2, 166 Bowling Green 19 27.8 60% 32 Pittsburgh 37 36.2, 41 California - Los Angel 35 34.2 56% 23 Mississippi State 19 24.2, 21 Illinois 10 22.7 55% 79 Brigham Young 24 39.1, 73 Southern Methodist 23 38.0 48% 43 Iowa 21 15.6, 36 Kentucky 0 16.1 48% 9 Penn State 35 29.0, 10 Utah 21 29.5 45% 83 Western Kentucky 44 28.9, 62 South Alabama 23 30.1 41% 121 Toledo 21 28.9, 106 Liberty 19 30.8 40% 135 Buffalo 23 32.2, 109 Georgia Southern 21 34.5 40% 44 Maryland 16 22.6, 46 North Carolina State 12 25.0 39% 65 Troy State 18 26.6, 60 Texas - San Antonio 12 29.2 39% 59 Duke 30 31.4, 50 Central Florida 13 33.9 34% 28 Texas Tech 42 34.3, 31 Mississippi 25 38.1 32% 127 Middle Tennessee State 25 21.3, 111 San Diego State 23 27.0 31% 58 Fresno State 29 24.1, 34 Washington State 6 29.6 30% 130 Eastern Michigan 41 25.1, 99 San Jose State 27 32.1 30% 66 Air Force 30 20.6, 20 Baylor 15 27.4 30% 5 Texas Christian 51 31.6, 3 Michigan 45 39.1 29% 154 North Carolina Central 41 23.6, 102 Jackson State 34 34.4 29% 29 Tulane 46 33.0, 12 Southern California 45 40.7 29% 16 Washington 27 29.2, 8 Texas 20 37.2 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 9 0.59 18 1.03 14 0.91 3 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 44 27 29.2 0.92 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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