prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 70% 1 Georgia 65 41.8, 6 Texas Christian 7 32.6 59% 22 South Dakota State 45 28.0, 30 North Dakota State 21 26.0 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 1 1.70 0 0.00 1 1.42 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 2 2 1.3 1.55 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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