prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 8 Penn State 24 32.2, 19 Southern California 7 24.6
33% 37 Brigham Young 41 17.7, 16 Texas A&M 37 23.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 0.00 1 1.39 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 2 1 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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