Week 3 (12-14 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  41 Arizona State           52 44.8,   108 North Texas              7 15.5
 99%  37 California - Los Angel  44 41.2,   103 Northeast Louisiana      0 11.5
 99%  33 Wisconsin               52 49.6,   110 Nevada - Las Vegas      17  9.4
 99%  31 Toledo                  27 43.8,   109 Akron                   10 10.2
 99%  10 Southern California     46 36.4,    85 Oregon State            17  3.8
 99%   8 Penn State              49 49.7,    99 Northern Illinois        0 11.8
 98%  43 Stanford                25 40.0,   101 San Jose State           2 13.2
 97%  61 Army                    37 31.8,   104 Ohio                    20  6.7
 97%   6 Kansas State            35 32.0,    51 Cincinnati               0  7.8
 96%  11 Virginia                21 36.4,    63 Maryland                 3 12.5
 95%  27 Iowa                    38 41.9,    87 Iowa State              13 21.5
 94%  64 New Mexico              17 30.3,   100 Central Florida          7 10.6
 94%  52 Wyoming                 66 37.4,    96 Hawaii                   0 17.4
 94%  32 Alabama                 36 18.3,    74 Vanderbilt              26  3.3
 94%  22 Miami - Florida         33 37.4,    89 Rutgers                  0 18.5
 93%  59 Georgia Tech            30 32.7,    97 Wake Forest             10 13.5
 93%   9 Auburn                  45 31.2,    55 Mississippi             28 13.1
 91%  18 Northwestern            38 33.4,    71 Duke                    13 17.3
 89%  20 Virginia Tech           45 27.1,    69 Boston College           7 12.6
 88%  15 Kansas                  52 28.3,    58 Texas Christian         17 14.1
 88%  12 Notre Dame              35 33.5,    44 Purdue                   0 18.6
 85%  34 Utah                    21 24.1,    80 Southern Methodist      17 12.0
 81%  53 Minnesota               26 29.5,    76 Ball State              23 18.5
 81%  48 Southern Mississippi    31 26.0,    68 Utah State              24 15.7
 79%  67 Oklahoma State          30 23.7,    83 Tulsa                    9 14.4
 75% 102 Alabama - Birmingham    42 25.3,   107 Arkansas State          17 17.6
 68%  92 Bowling Green           20 27.0,    98 Temple                  16 21.7
 68%  30 Oregon                  35 28.2,    36 Colorado State          28 23.0
 61%  47 Arizona                 41 13.2,    46 Illinois                 0 10.4
 60%  49 South Carolina          23 35.6,    45 Georgia                 14 33.1
 60%  40 West Virginia           10 19.7,    38 East Carolina            9 17.0

 47%  42 Washington              29 28.3,    23 Brigham Young           17 30.2
 42%  78 Houston                 42 24.7,    81 Pittsburgh              35 26.7
 40% 105 Texas - El Paso         14 29.1,    93 New Mexico State         7 32.5
 33%  94 Louisiana Tech          38 27.4,    90 Central Michigan        37 32.4
 31%  65 California              42 24.6,    39 San Diego State         37 31.1
 28%  91 Rice                    21 20.4,    82 Tulane                  14 27.1
 27%  86 Eastern Michigan        19 18.9,    77 Western Michigan        12 26.1
 26%  84 Memphis State           19  9.5,    72 Missouri                16 16.4
 25%  50 Baylor                  14 13.1,    35 Louisville              13 20.8
 23%  60 Indiana                 21 16.2,    25 Miami - Ohio            14 25.4
 17%  14 Michigan                20 21.6,     5 Colorado                13 33.9
  8%  70 Southwestern Louisiana  29 14.8,    17 Texas A&M               22 31.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 0.00   8 0.97   7 0.38   7 1.01  19 0.99   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  43  31 0.87

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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