Week 5 (26-28 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  55 Army                    27 41.9,   109 North Texas             10 11.9
 99%  43 Nevada - Reno           63 53.3,   111 Kent State              42 12.2
 99%  27 East Carolina           28 35.5,    99 Central Florida          7  3.9
 99%  25 Wyoming                 33 50.7,   110 Nevada - Las Vegas      21 19.7
 99%  16 Louisiana State         63 40.6,    94 New Mexico State         7  6.9
 99%  15 Miami - Florida         45 41.4,    93 Pittsburgh               0  8.8
 99%   3 Florida                 65 49.7,    78 Kentucky                 0  4.6
 99%   2 Nebraska                65 47.4,    52 Colorado State           9 11.4
 98%  62 Arkansas                38 32.1,   104 Northeast Louisiana     21  6.1
 98%  37 Washington State        52 41.2,   101 San Jose State          16 14.7
 97%  20 Air Force               45 40.4,    85 Rice                    17 13.7
 96%  36 California              48 34.7,    89 Oregon State            42 10.9
 94%  21 Texas Tech              58 34.2,    65 Utah State              20 13.2
 94%   4 Florida State           13 38.9,    18 North Carolina           0 16.6
 92%  41 Michigan State          47 37.1,    87 Eastern Michigan         0 18.6
 92%   5 Penn State              23 27.7,    34 Wisconsin               20 11.5
 92%   1 Ohio State              29 39.4,     8 Notre Dame              16 22.6
 87%  32 Brigham Young           31 30.9,    66 Southern Methodist       3 15.6
 87%   9 Colorado                24 32.3,    44 Texas A&M               10 18.0
 86%  73 Clemson                 21 28.7,    97 Wake Forest             10 14.2
 83%  39 West Virginia           13 20.0,    59 Maryland                 0  9.3
 82%  61 Georgia Tech            48 25.8,    81 Duke                    22 14.8
 82%  22 Arizona State           48 37.4,    51 Oregon                  27 26.2
 80%  14 Michigan                38 26.5,    29 California - Los Angel   9 16.4
 79%  96 Fresno State            20 37.9,   105 Hawaii                   0 29.1
 74%  64 Purdue                  42 29.4,    79 North Carolina State    21 21.1
 73%  13 Virginia                37 28.7,    17 Texas                   13 21.2
 69%  76 Bowling Green           31 28.5,    86 Central Michigan        27 22.2
 68%  63 New Mexico              27 20.4,    72 Texas Christian          7 15.3
 60%  24 Northwestern            35 19.2,    42 Indiana                 17 15.5
 59%  71 Boston College          43 16.4,    68 Navy                    38 13.9
 51%  98 Texas - El Paso         37 27.1,   103 Northern Illinois        6 25.5

 50%  31 Syracuse                52 21.3,    23 Virginia Tech           21 22.2
 47%  58 Cincinnati              30 15.4,    46 Miami - Ohio            23 16.7
 46%  84 Iowa State              45 29.1,    69 Missouri                31 31.1
 41%  38 Southern Mississippi    24 19.8,    40 Louisville               7 22.1
 34%  83 Southwestern Louisiana  37 31.1,    75 Louisiana Tech          31 35.5
 24%  82 Tulsa                   31 15.8,    67 Oklahoma                24 24.5
 24%  74 Mississippi State       14 32.3,    56 South Carolina          10 40.4
 21%  33 Utah                    45 19.1,    10 Kansas                  42 29.7
 16% 107 Akron                   27 15.9,    90 Western Michigan         7 27.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 0.78   3 0.98   7 0.74   7 1.01  17 1.03   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  41  32 0.95

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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