prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
99% 88 Ohio 24 40.3, 111 Kent State 15 16.5
99% 76 Utah State 39 42.4, 109 Boise State 14 21.6
99% 47 Louisville 27 41.5, 104 Northern Illinois 3 4.5
99% 42 West Virginia 30 35.0, 100 Temple 10 7.5
99% 16 Louisiana State 41 41.4, 86 Kentucky 14 4.0
99% 9 Michigan 27 36.1, 63 Indiana 20 6.4
99% 3 Ohio State 42 43.3, 49 Purdue 14 11.4
97% 25 Southern Mississippi 16 32.3, 73 Memphis State 0 6.7
97% 2 Florida 51 47.3, 18 Auburn 10 23.8
96% 38 Georgia 13 24.9, 77 Vanderbilt 2 4.7
96% 20 Virginia 62 38.0, 64 North Carolina State 14 13.4
94% 39 Utah 21 32.7, 80 Texas Christian 7 11.8
93% 78 Colorado State 36 36.4, 101 San Jose State 13 18.8
93% 46 Wyoming 42 41.1, 90 Fresno State 21 22.5
92% 35 Alabama 37 24.6, 60 Mississippi 0 7.4
92% 24 Brigham Young 55 33.5, 66 Tulsa 30 17.0
91% 1 Nebraska 24 38.3, 8 Texas Tech 10 21.6
90% 22 San Diego State 48 36.9, 67 New Mexico 42 21.7
89% 58 Boston College 37 34.9, 89 Rutgers 13 19.0
82% 75 Maryland 52 26.6, 87 Wake Forest 0 15.3
80% 6 Arizona State 48 29.7, 19 Southern California 35 18.4
79% 56 Army 34 28.2, 74 Tulane 10 18.2
74% 13 Kansas State 23 22.3, 37 Texas A&M 20 13.8
71% 103 North Texas 13 34.6, 106 New Mexico State 0 25.8
69% 92 Central Michigan 41 29.6, 97 Eastern Michigan 36 23.5
66% 23 Washington 41 33.5, 28 California - Los Angel 21 28.9
63% 53 South Carolina 23 25.0, 59 Arkansas 17 19.4
60% 107 Hawaii 38 36.6, 110 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 22.6
52% 82 Oklahoma State 28 31.9, 68 Iowa State 27 31.2
52% 36 Michigan State 27 34.0, 48 Minnesota 9 32.6
50% 71 Rice 35 21.7, 61 Southern Methodist 17 21.7
50% 70 Ball State 16 15.2, 81 Bowling Green 11 15.2
46% 31 Washington State 21 30.9, 17 California 18 33.0
46% 11 Colorado 20 31.8, 15 Kansas 7 32.9
32% 62 Cincinnati 31 20.8, 44 Houston 20 27.4
32% 33 Northwestern 34 13.3, 26 Wisconsin 30 18.3
29% 94 Alabama - Birmingham 39 25.7, 69 Southwestern Louisiana 29 32.5
28% 99 Northeast Louisiana 39 19.1, 93 Central Florida 38 25.9
21% 83 Idaho 24 34.6, 32 Nevada - Reno 15 43.3
21% 65 Clemson 28 6.1, 41 Georgia Tech 25 14.2
19% 30 Iowa 21 17.8, 10 Penn State 20 29.8
14% 79 Oklahoma 28 15.9, 51 Baylor 24 30.3
11% 29 Air Force 20 20.5, 7 Notre Dame 17 36.1
10% 95 Louisiana Tech 61 23.1, 54 Toledo 20 36.6
10% 85 Oregon State 26 11.9, 50 Stanford 12 27.3
10% 45 East Carolina 31 6.1, 21 Miami - Florida 6 21.3
1% 108 Akron 10 9.1, 57 Miami - Ohio 7 40.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.96 6 1.01 8 0.66 7 0.49 20 0.89 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 31 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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