Week 10 (31 Oct - 2 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  88 Fresno State            41 41.5,   109 Boise State              7 19.1
 99%  78 Texas Christian         42 49.7,   111 Nevada - Las Vegas      34 11.5
 99%  30 East Carolina           34 46.1,   107 Arkansas State          16  2.8
 99%  28 Miami - Florida         57 40.3,   100 Temple                  26  6.4
 99%  15 Virginia                27 45.2,    95 Duke                     3 13.9
 99%  14 Brigham Young           40 49.0,    96 Texas - El Paso         18 11.0
 99%  13 North Carolina          52 43.5,    85 North Carolina State    20  9.9
 99%   5 Arizona State           29 46.3,    82 Oregon State            14 14.2
 99%   3 Ohio State              45 47.3,    51 Minnesota                0 11.3
 99%   2 Florida                 47 50.3,    49 Georgia                  7  8.0
 99%   1 Nebraska                73 53.7,    63 Oklahoma                21  7.9
 98%  48 Nevada - Reno           63 47.6,   108 New Mexico State        14 24.9
 98%  12 Colorado                41 37.6,    70 Missouri                13 13.7
 98%   4 Florida State           49 36.5,    47 Georgia Tech             3 10.8
 97%  39 San Diego State         49 43.2,   102 San Jose State          20 23.4
 96%  67 Utah State              21 36.5,   103 North Texas             13 12.4
 96%  34 Texas A&M               38 35.3,    87 Oklahoma State          19 14.4
 95%  90 Central Michigan        52 42.8,   110 Kent State              51 30.6
 93%  18 Auburn                  28 32.3,    55 Arkansas                 7 12.2
 91%  41 Virginia Tech           47 34.6,    73 Southwestern Louisiana  16 17.0
 89%  77 Mississippi State       59 36.7,    98 Northeast Louisiana      0 23.3
 89%  24 Southern Mississippi    21 28.2,    54 Cincinnati              17 11.7
 89%   8 Syracuse                30 28.0,    42 West Virginia            7 13.4
 89%   7 Tennessee               31 34.3,    45 South Carolina          14 18.0
 87%  50 Louisville              13 15.9,    71 Memphis State           10  3.9
 85%   6 Notre Dame              54 35.1,    38 Navy                    27 19.2
 84%  84 Ohio                    38 20.1,   101 Western Michigan         0  8.9
 84%  69 Ball State              39 26.6,    97 Eastern Michigan        25 14.0
 82%  33 Wisconsin               33 25.0,    46 Purdue                  25 13.8
 82%  20 Iowa                    31 29.6,    53 Illinois                21 17.7
 82%  11 Penn State              34 30.3,    25 Northwestern             9 18.8
 80%  40 Wyoming                 59 36.3,    58 Southern Methodist      17 26.0
 80%  35 Kansas                  34 39.9,    79 Iowa State              31 30.1
 79%   9 Michigan                45 28.2,    19 Michigan State          29 17.6
 77%  81 Louisiana Tech          40 38.7,   106 Northern Illinois       14 31.9
 69%  76 Miami - Ohio            27 25.5,    91 Toledo                   7 18.2
 69%  61 Clemson                 35 14.8,    65 Maryland                 3  9.4
 69%  36 Texas                   28 34.1,    43 Baylor                  23 28.3
 63%  83 Vanderbilt              31 17.3,    86 Alabama - Birmingham    15 13.4
 56%  32 California              56 22.5,    29 Arizona                 55 20.8
 52%  17 Washington              21 24.1,    23 Southern California     10 22.8
 50%  60 Houston                 20 29.9,    66 Tulane                  17 29.1

 44%  52 Rice                    51 27.2,    37 Utah                    10 30.4
 41%  74 New Mexico              34 27.3,    75 Tulsa                   23 29.8
 35% 104 Akron                   21 15.8,    94 Bowling Green           14 21.4
 16%  92 Pittsburgh              20 27.1,    56 Boston College          13 38.1
  8%  64 Stanford                21 13.0,    26 California - Los Angel  20 33.6
  6%  62 Colorado State          42 12.3,    22 Air Force               41 33.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                5 1.09   5 1.19   3 1.27  13 1.08  21 0.93   1 1.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  48  42 1.03

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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