Week 11 (7-9 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  75 Ball State              50 46.2,   109 Kent State               6 17.4
 99%  68 Idaho                   34 45.8,   111 New Mexico State        19  8.5
 99%  18 Auburn                  28 52.0,   107 Northeast Louisiana     24  9.3
 99%  15 Colorado                49 43.7,    77 Iowa State              42 15.2
 99%  11 Washington              42 40.3,    70 Oregon State             3  7.4
 99%   6 Notre Dame              48 41.6,    63 Boston College          21 13.4
 99%   4 Florida State           44 57.8,   102 Wake Forest              7  2.4
 99%   3 Ohio State              48 42.9,    53 Illinois                 0  9.0
 99%   2 Florida                 28 53.7,    80 Vanderbilt              21  3.4
 99%   1 Nebraska                51 59.8,    72 Missouri                 7  5.4
 98%  12 North Carolina          28 28.1,    54 Louisville              10  3.8
 98%   8 Syracuse                31 39.4,    66 Tulane                   7 13.9
 97% 100 North Texas             30 29.8,   110 Boise State             27 15.6
 96%  45 West Virginia           55 27.8,    90 Rutgers                 14  8.2
 95%  78 Southwestern Louisiana  45 38.7,   106 Northern Illinois       31 17.9
 92%   5 Arizona State           35 43.6,    35 California               7 24.4
 89%  29 Wisconsin               45 30.2,    59 Minnesota               28 13.9
 89%  24 Michigan State          38 37.9,    61 Indiana                 15 22.1
 85%  16 Brigham Young           49 41.5,    40 Rice                     0 29.3
 83%  57 Colorado State          42 32.1,    87 Fresno State            20 19.9
 81%  60 Arkansas                13 19.6,    73 Mississippi              7  9.1
 80%  69 Miami - Ohio            24 21.2,    83 Ohio                     8 10.7
 76%  86 North Carolina State    44 40.5,    97 Duke                    22 33.1
 73%  65 Southern Methodist      30 29.9,    89 Texas - El Paso          0 22.0
 72%  95 Eastern Michigan        20 27.9,   105 Akron                   17 21.1
 67%  17 Kansas State            38 28.1,    38 Kansas                  12 22.1
 66%  49 Utah                    31 30.3,    71 New Mexico              24 24.7
 66%  41 Nevada - Reno           54 42.7,    79 Utah State              27 38.3
 64%  37 Virginia Tech           35 18.4,    39 East Carolina           14 14.6
 60%  31 California - Los Angel  38 30.8,    28 Washington State        14 27.9
 59%  34 San Diego State         28 43.1,    33 Wyoming                 24 40.6
 53%  36 Texas A&M               24 21.1,    42 Baylor                   7 19.4
 50%  93 Toledo                  23 33.1,    92 Central Michigan        20 30.4

 50%  81 Oklahoma                27 33.4,    85 Oklahoma State          17 33.5
 42%  76 Kentucky                24 21.7,    62 Mississippi State       21 25.1
 41%  44 Army                    23 23.1,    32 Air Force                7 26.9
 38% 103 San Jose State          38 22.0,   101 Hawaii                  17 25.9
 35%  25 Alabama                 26 17.3,    23 Louisiana State          0 21.2
 29%  99 Arkansas State          55 33.4,    74 Louisiana Tech          38 39.5
 29%  55 Houston                 56 23.2,    27 Southern Mississippi    49 30.7
 28%  88 Texas Christian         31 20.4,    82 Tulsa                   24 27.4
 27%  30 Northwestern            40 20.0,    20 Iowa                    13 27.0
 26% 104 Western Michigan        16 10.0,    94 Bowling Green           13 18.1
 21%  51 Stanford                24 10.4,    22 Southern California     20 20.2
 19%  58 Oregon                  49 23.7,    21 Arizona                 31 34.7
 18%  26 Texas                   38 20.9,    14 Texas Tech              32 33.2
 16%  96 Central Florida         35 21.1,    84 Alabama - Birmingham    13 32.3
  5%  48 Purdue                   9 13.3,     7 Michigan                 3 33.2
  2%  56 Clemson                 24  6.0,    10 Virginia                16 32.6
  1%  64 Memphis State           21  5.9,     9 Tennessee               17 32.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 0.91   7 1.11   9 0.45   9 0.80  17 0.84   2 1.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  50  33 0.81

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net