Week 12 (14-16 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  76 Oregon State            67 36.1,   107 Northern Illinois       28  8.4
 99%  65 Boston College          21 40.3,   105 Temple                  20 18.1
 99%  11 Washington              53 49.7,    96 San Jose State          10  5.4
 99%   9 Brigham Young           45 52.0,   106 Hawaii                  14  5.7
 99%   5 Notre Dame              60 50.6,    84 Pittsburgh               6 12.5
 99%   3 Ohio State              27 47.0,    63 Indiana                 17  9.0
 99%   2 Florida                 52 50.0,    42 South Carolina          25 15.2
 99%   1 Nebraska                49 58.2,    79 Iowa State              14 14.2
 98% 100 Western Michigan        76 38.8,   111 Kent State              27 16.1
 98%  16 Texas Tech              56 41.5,    71 Southwestern Louisiana  21 15.4
 98%  14 Tennessee               55 32.2,    60 Arkansas                14  5.8
 97%  40 East Carolina           55 27.3,    80 Ohio                    45  4.9
 96%  30 Nevada - Reno           66 50.0,    92 Arkansas State          14 34.2
 95%  36 Air Force               44 36.7,    88 Fresno State            38 16.5
 94%  54 Cincinnati              34 30.3,    90 Alabama - Birmingham    14 12.6
 94%  46 Clemson                 40 38.4,    83 North Carolina State    17 19.6
 93%  32 Texas A&M               33 39.6,    78 Oklahoma                16 19.2
 93%   6 Florida State           54 39.0,    35 Southern Mississippi    14 18.7
 92%  10 Syracuse                42 32.0,    38 Army                    17 13.9
 88%  70 Ball State              24 29.7,    93 Toledo                  14 11.7
 88%  34 Louisiana State         39 25.1,    68 Mississippi              7 11.5
 83%  25 Northwestern            27 29.3,    47 Purdue                  24 17.0
 81%  87 Central Florida         27 25.4,    97 Bowling Green           19 14.9
 78%  57 Rice                    30 30.8,    82 Texas Christian         17 21.1
 77%  48 Navy                    35 31.2,    64 Tulane                  21 21.2
 71%   7 Colorado                12 24.5,    15 Kansas State             0 17.9
 68%  43 Houston                 38 27.4,    53 Louisville               7 21.4
 67%  99 Wake Forest             17 34.1,   104 Duke                    16 27.4
 66%  28 Wyoming                 25 35.8,    56 Colorado State          24 30.4
 62%  20 Texas                   38 36.0,    45 Kansas                  17 31.4
 57%  61 Minnesota               23 25.8,    59 Illinois                21 23.6
 56%  77 Kentucky                25 15.6,    73 Vanderbilt               0 14.0
 54%  86 Tulsa                   38 24.4,    94 Texas - El Paso         14 22.2
 50%  31 Iowa                    31 23.1,    21 Wisconsin                0 23.7

 46%  49 Stanford                33 21.0,    39 Washington State        17 23.2
 43%  41 Oregon                  40 32.0,    24 California              23 34.8
 42%  44 Arizona                 35 27.0,    27 California - Los Angel  17 31.1
 39%  18 Virginia                20 18.3,     8 North Carolina          17 23.2
 39%  12 Penn State              29 21.0,    13 Michigan                17 23.7
 29%  23 Virginia Tech           21 18.8,    17 Miami - Florida          7 25.4
 28% 110 Boise State             33 29.0,   108 New Mexico State        32 34.5
 23%  74 Maryland                13  9.6,    50 Georgia Tech            10 18.1
 22%  67 Missouri                49 17.3,    55 Baylor                  42 27.0
 16%  51 Georgia                 56 15.6,    29 Auburn                  49 28.4
 13%  58 Mississippi State       17 14.7,    19 Alabama                 16 28.3
  7% 103 North Texas             24  8.5,    75 Idaho                   17 25.3
  1% 109 Nevada - Las Vegas      44 24.4,    33 San Diego State         42 49.7

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.03   6 1.04   7 0.57   6 0.78  21 0.94   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  47  34 0.89

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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