Week 13 (21-23 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred
 99%  13 North Carolina          27 45.7,    98 Duke                    10  7.2
 99%   9 Syracuse                36 47.4,    95 Temple                  15 12.2
 99%   7 Tennessee               56 41.6,    67 Kentucky                10  8.5
 99%   6 Notre Dame              62 54.6,    94 Rutgers                  0  8.4
 99%   4 Florida State           48 46.1,    72 Maryland                10  2.9
 98%  89 Idaho                   64 35.0,   108 Boise State             19 18.0
 98%  53 Cincinnati              35 39.3,   102 Northeast Louisiana     13 10.5
 97%  16 Kansas State            35 39.5,    73 Iowa State              20 13.6
 95%  22 Miami - Florida         43 33.0,    70 Boston College          26 10.6
 94%  25 Louisiana State         35 30.9,    68 Tulane                  17  9.8
 93%  12 Texas Tech              22 39.4,    65 Oklahoma                12 21.0
 92%  75 New Mexico              44 33.0,   101 Texas - El Paso         17 14.2
 91%  48 Rice                    42 39.9,    83 Tulsa                   14 23.1
 90%  46 San Diego State         31 42.1,    84 Fresno State            21 26.5
 89%   5 Arizona State           56 37.3,    27 Arizona                 14 21.8
 87%  21 Iowa                    43 33.5,    63 Minnesota               17 19.5
 87%   8 Washington              31 33.3,    42 Washington State        24 18.8
 84%  10 Penn State              32 35.7,    23 Michigan State          29 23.3
 82%  66 Southern Methodist      27 27.5,    82 Texas Christian         24 16.1
 82%  15 Brigham Young           37 39.1,    57 Utah                    17 28.0
 81%  20 Virginia Tech           31 21.5,    35 West Virginia           14 11.4
 79%  96 San Jose State          31 42.2,   105 Nevada - Las Vegas      28 29.8
 79%  86 North Carolina State    37 37.5,   100 Wake Forest             22 29.9
 78%  30 Wisconsin               35 24.8,    61 Illinois                15 15.3
 78%  18 Alabama                 24 26.3,    31 Auburn                  23 16.5
 72%  39 East Carolina           20 18.3,    62 Memphis State           10 11.2
 64%  32 Oregon                  49 34.4,    59 Oregon State            13 29.2
 50%  34 California - Los Angel  48 24.2,    24 Southern California     41 24.4

 50%  51 Navy                    36 24.1,    58 Georgia Tech            26 23.7
 39%  47 South Carolina          34 18.6,    44 Clemson                 31 21.9
 38%  64 Missouri                42 28.3,    45 Kansas                  25 32.6
 36%  40 Stanford                42 22.1,    37 California              21 26.4
 30%  55 Indiana                 33 23.4,    49 Purdue                  16 29.7
 22%  69 Arkansas                16 17.9,    54 Mississippi State       13 27.6
 16%  93 Toledo                  24 14.6,    78 Ohio                    23 28.6
 14%  80 Oklahoma State          37 17.2,    50 Baylor                  17 30.4
 11%  77 Mississippi             31 10.7,    52 Georgia                 27 26.5
  5%  14 Michigan                13 10.6,     3 Ohio State               9 33.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                2 1.00   4 0.40   7 0.93  10 0.82  15 0.97   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  38  28 0.88

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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