Week 1 (23-24 Aug) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  33 Kansas                  24 43.1,   108 Alabama - Birmingham     0 13.6
 92%  69 Vanderbilt              29 26.0,   110 North Texas             12  2.0
 92%  27 Virginia Tech           59 39.7,   106 Rutgers                 19 10.7
 92%  16 Arizona State           41 46.3,   104 New Mexico State        10  4.8
 92%   2 Florida                 21 50.7,    51 Southern Mississippi     6 14.8
 92%   1 Nebraska                59 66.7,   112 Akron                   14 -0.8
 91%   3 Ohio State              24 41.5,    37 Wyoming                 10 13.3
 90%  26 Alabama                 42 35.9,    75 Houston                 17 11.9
 85%  50 Miami - Ohio            27 24.3,    83 Ball State              10  7.3
 85%  42 West Virginia           42 21.4,    74 Marshall                31  5.8
 84%  59 Cincinnati              34 30.8,    99 Tulsa                   24 13.2
 83%  47 Georgia                 38 30.8,    84 Arkansas State           7 13.9
 82%  58 Louisiana Tech          30 33.9,    97 Bowling Green           23 17.6
 81%  46 Air Force               14 34.9,    80 Idaho                   10 19.8
 80%  64 Mississippi State       13 23.0,    90 Memphis State           10  9.3
 73%  72 Mississippi             24 25.3,    96 Central Florida         23 14.3
 72%   6 Tennessee               52 32.7,    15 Texas Tech              17 21.8
 70%  88 Western Michigan        34 28.9,   103 Temple                  14 19.7
 65%  81 Central Michigan        44 26.3,    98 Northern Illinois       10 18.9
 63%  22 Miami - Florida         45 26.7,    44 Baylor                  14 19.3
 55% 100 Pittsburgh              45 32.7,    87 Southwestern Louisiana  13 31.4

 47%  41 Washington State        37 30.0,    30 California - Los Angel  34 31.3
 44%  76 Oklahoma State          21 31.2,    78 Iowa State              14 33.7
 41%  34 Colorado State          45 33.1,    13 Nevada - Reno           13 38.7
 32%  82 Kentucky                38 12.9,    55 Louisville              24 21.6
 17%  92 Utah State              21 20.8,    48 Utah                    14 37.1
 15% 101 Ohio                    31  8.5,    56 Kent State               7 24.4
 14%  54 North Carolina State    32 22.8,    12 Syracuse                31 41.4
 12% 109 Hawaii                  17 14.6,    62 Minnesota                3 33.9

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 0.45   3 1.02   4 1.36  11 0.75   7 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  29  21 0.92

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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