Week 3 (11-13 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  64 Marshall                42 49.9,   112 Kent State              17 16.6
 93%  40 Air Force               25 44.3,   104 Nevada - Las Vegas      24 15.1
 93%  21 Texas Tech              59 45.3,    95 Southwestern Louisiana  14 12.4
 92%  87 Western Michigan        21 37.8,   110 Northern Illinois       13 15.7
 92%  54 Miami - Ohio            49 36.8,   107 Akron                   20  3.8
 92%  45 Wisconsin               56 36.2,   101 San Jose State          10 10.5
 92%  44 Arizona                 24 38.0,    98 Alabama - Birmingham    10  9.4
 92%  27 Wyoming                 35 42.9,   105 Hawaii                   6  8.9
 92%  26 Michigan State          51 33.7,    83 Memphis State           21  5.4
 92%  15 Iowa                    54 41.8,    90 Tulsa                   16  9.6
 92%  13 Kansas State            23 38.6,    93 Ohio                    20  1.5
 92%  11 Penn State              52 48.4,    97 Temple                  10  6.0
 92%   5 Florida State           50 45.3,    75 Maryland                 7  3.3
 92%   3 Ohio State              44 46.1,    82 Bowling Green           13  1.3
 92%   1 Nebraska                38 57.6,    84 Central Florida         24  3.6
 91%  35 East Carolina           25 36.8,    94 Wake Forest             24 10.6
 91%  14 Auburn                  19 39.3,    70 Mississippi              9 11.3
 90%  55 Navy                    36 42.4,   102 Rutgers                  7 21.6
 90%  48 Northwestern            24 37.6,    96 Duke                    20 14.2
 87%  65 New Mexico              38 36.9,   108 Texas - El Paso         20 19.6
 87%  24 Alabama                 20 21.2,    67 Vanderbilt               0  5.3
 85%  53 Toledo                  38 34.1,    92 Eastern Michigan        35 15.4
 84% 100 Central Michigan        44 41.4,   109 Boise State             26 30.8
 83%  30 Colorado State          35 36.0,    78 Utah State              24 20.3
 82%  22 Louisiana State         24 32.3,    63 Mississippi State        9 16.6
 82%   9 Washington              36 40.7,    39 San Diego State          3 25.1
 75%  18 North Carolina          28 21.1,    34 Stanford                17  9.8
 73%  89 Louisiana Tech          17 40.2,    99 Northeast Louisiana     16 33.5
 73%  62 Indiana                 33 24.6,    81 Ball State               6 13.7
 73%  36 Kansas                  15 35.4,    60 Missouri                 7 24.4
 70%  68 Minnesota               53 36.2,    91 Iowa State              29 27.5
 69%  66 Oklahoma State          35 30.4,    85 Fresno State             0 21.5
 62%  31 Clemson                 19 31.6,    56 North Carolina State    17 24.4
 61%  52 Utah                    32 24.3,    73 Texas Christian         18 17.6
 56%  16 Virginia Tech           31 29.6,    17 Syracuse                 3 26.6
 55%  59 Louisville              26 19.6,    57 Illinois                14 17.9
 55%  49 Georgia                 31 24.9,    43 South Carolina          15 23.3
 52%  10 Michigan                27 18.8,     7 Colorado                 3 18.7

 45%  76 Pittsburgh              35 29.7,    86 Houston                 24 30.8
 44%  77 Rice                    30 25.5,    80 Tulane                  24 28.0
 44%  19 Arizona State           23 24.6,    20 Miami - Florida         12 27.3
 34%  41 Oregon                  24 32.0,    28 Nevada - Reno           20 39.4
 29%  69 Boston College          31 17.3,    37 West Virginia           24 27.3
 26%  38 Washington State        28 18.4,    23 Southern California     21 29.8
 21%  33 California - Los Angel  66 27.2,     8 Texas                    3 41.0
 18%  88 Southern Methodist      31 10.8,    50 Arkansas                 9 26.6
 14%  47 Purdue                  28 18.0,     6 Notre Dame              17 36.0

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                7 1.04   4 1.16   8 0.85  10 0.94  18 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  47  38 1.02

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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