prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 51 Utah 56 40.9, 107 Texas - El Paso 3 9.3
93% 14 Iowa 63 46.0, 95 Iowa State 20 19.1
92% 50 North Carolina State 41 46.7, 110 Northern Illinois 14 14.8
92% 22 Wyoming 30 46.6, 102 San Jose State 10 9.5
92% 15 North Carolina 40 31.4, 80 Maryland 14 6.8
92% 13 Virginia Tech 23 44.8, 99 Temple 13 10.2
92% 11 Texas A&M 66 49.9, 103 Southwestern Louisiana 0 8.4
92% 4 Ohio State 28 38.6, 49 Arizona 20 5.5
91% 40 Georgia 42 36.9, 96 Northeast Louisiana 3 9.6
91% 25 Syracuse 30 37.8, 83 Tulane 19 9.8
91% 6 Michigan 38 36.8, 52 Baylor 3 8.4
90% 36 Purdue 28 31.0, 84 Ball State 14 7.2
90% 8 Penn State 57 32.9, 59 Louisville 21 10.5
89% 34 Oregon 43 40.3, 92 Fresno State 40 17.6
88% 78 Bowling Green 31 33.1, 108 Akron 28 15.4
86% 69 Boston College 35 35.1, 105 Rutgers 21 19.5
86% 5 Florida State 35 29.4, 33 Clemson 28 11.8
81% 37 Stanford 27 28.5, 82 Oregon State 24 13.7
81% 1 Florida 33 44.4, 3 Tennessee 20 30.4
80% 43 Georgia Tech 28 28.1, 86 Wake Forest 26 14.2
75% 35 California 40 35.4, 65 Oklahoma 36 23.2
73% 2 Nebraska 27 35.4, 7 Washington 14 23.7
71% 54 Toledo 23 27.8, 88 Western Michigan 13 17.5
71% 32 Washington State 35 31.3, 68 Illinois 22 21.0
66% 93 Louisiana Tech 56 42.9, 101 Central Michigan 28 35.3
66% 61 Missouri 42 34.0, 94 Tulsa 21 25.9
66% 60 Minnesota 20 25.2, 85 Memphis State 17 16.9
65% 29 Southern Mississippi 35 30.9, 38 Nevada - Reno 19 22.0
63% 66 Central Florida 41 30.2, 75 Idaho 10 23.7
56% 74 Vanderbilt 40 13.1, 77 Texas Christian 16 9.7
55% 100 Nevada - Las Vegas 25 27.0, 98 Hawaii 15 25.4
55% 56 Navy 46 29.2, 72 Southern Methodist 16 27.1
51% 62 New Mexico 25 32.6, 79 Utah State 22 31.5
50% 53 Wisconsin 36 25.4, 39 San Diego State 10 26.5
45% 19 Auburn 31 24.7, 20 Louisiana State 28 27.1
42% 91 Duke 20 22.7, 70 Army 17 28.5
42% 67 Cincinnati 34 15.9, 41 Kansas 7 22.2
42% 47 South Carolina 26 22.2, 44 East Carolina 0 26.7
33% 21 Michigan State 23 28.5, 9 Notre Dame 7 36.6
31% 76 Kentucky 49 20.8, 57 Indiana 7 30.0
31% 31 Brigham Young 13 25.3, 17 Arizona State 10 34.5
25% 46 Air Force 24 18.4, 30 Colorado State 0 31.1
22% 81 Rice 40 18.7, 45 Northwestern 34 32.8
15% 71 Pittsburgh 21 15.5, 23 Miami - Florida 17 32.7
12% 58 Arkansas 17 5.4, 24 Alabama 16 25.0
8% 104 North Texas 30 2.5, 12 Texas Tech 27 50.0
7% 112 Kent State 41 22.1, 87 Eastern Michigan 38 48.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.80 8 0.94 7 0.96 8 0.88 15 0.94 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 47 33 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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