Week 12 (13-15 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  76 Louisiana Tech          63 46.5,   112 Southwestern Louisiana  24 21.8
 93%  56 Toledo                  42 40.1,   104 Akron                   10 12.4
 93%  51 Miami - Florida         51 44.0,   106 Rutgers                 23 13.8
 92%  27 Miami - Ohio            42 48.6,   107 Northern Illinois        0 11.1
 92%  13 Syracuse                32 41.9,    80 Pittsburgh              27 14.9
 92%   4 Tennessee               30 40.2,    68 Arkansas                22 10.9
 92%   3 Ohio State              41 42.9,    84 Illinois                 6  0.3
 92%   2 Florida State           58 48.9,    71 Wake Forest              7  9.3
 92%   1 Nebraska                77 59.0,    95 Iowa State              14 13.0
 91%  35 West Virginia           41 40.8,    99 Temple                  21 11.6
 91%  15 Texas A&M               51 37.4,    81 Oklahoma                 7 11.7
 90%  32 Southern Mississippi    33 41.1,    88 Houston                  0 20.0
 89%   7 Michigan                26 25.6,    41 Wisconsin               16  7.2
 84%  26 Southern California     23 26.5,    75 Oregon State             0 10.2
 83%  96 Army                    25 29.4,   108 North Texas             14 13.9
 82%  11 Washington State        38 44.7,    45 Stanford                28 28.0
 78%   5 Florida                 48 32.2,    29 South Carolina          21 17.8
 77%  55 Minnesota               24 30.0,    83 Indiana                 12 15.2
 77%  40 Missouri                42 36.0,    74 Baylor                  24 23.0
 76%  65 Central Florida         27 42.3,    93 Eastern Michigan        10 31.3
 75%  47 Marshall                27 29.8,    72 Ohio                     0 16.8
 74%  38 Georgia Tech            41 28.9,    78 Duke                    38 17.2
 73%  37 Arizona                 41 35.6,    67 California              38 24.1
 73%  16 Arizona State           52 31.8,    30 Oregon                  31 19.7
 73%  12 Kansas State            37 31.5,    21 Colorado                20 18.8
 69%  63 Southern Methodist      42 31.1,    91 Tulsa                   41 21.7
 65%  79 Memphis State           21 27.2,    92 Louisville              20 17.5
 63%  60 Texas                   45 27.5,    77 Kansas                  31 19.4
 56% 105 Idaho                   35 33.2,   111 New Mexico State        18 29.1
 56%  23 North Carolina          17 17.4,    39 Clemson                 10 12.1
 55%  85 Western Michigan        32 27.1,    97 Northeast Louisiana     19 23.7
 54%  58 New Mexico              38 24.5,    53 Brigham Young           28 23.0
 54%  10 California - Los Angel  52 27.8,     8 Washington              28 26.8
 52%  43 North Carolina State    31 28.5,    34 Virginia                24 28.0
 50%  69 Utah                    31 23.2,    59 Rice                    14 22.5

 50%  98 Texas - El Paso         24 18.6,    94 Texas Christian         17 19.4
 46%  73 East Carolina           14 21.7,    54 Cincinnati               7 23.9
 46%  17 Penn State              42 29.1,    20 Purdue                  17 30.1
 45%  46 Mississippi State       32 15.5,    49 Alabama                 20 18.1
 45%  44 Mississippi             41 19.2,    50 Tulane                  24 20.5
 44%  66 San Diego State         20 27.9,    61 Fresno State            19 31.5
 44%  62 Kentucky                21 23.9,    64 Vanderbilt              10 27.1
 44%  52 Air Force               14 14.8,    33 Wyoming                  3 19.3
 41%  31 Texas Tech              27 13.6,    28 Oklahoma State           3 19.2
 38%  24 Auburn                  45 16.1,    18 Georgia                 34 23.5
 32% 103 San Jose State          38 18.4,    90 Hawaii                  14 26.5
 32%  57 Utah State              38 33.0,    36 Nevada - Reno           19 41.6
 22%  22 Notre Dame              24 18.1,     9 Louisiana State          6 33.0
 13%  48 Northwestern            15 17.6,     6 Iowa                    14 36.6

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               16 0.80   6 0.76  10 1.19   6 0.97  11 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  49  35 0.99

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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