Week 13 (20-22 Nov) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  44 Navy                    62 51.5,   104 Kent State              29 28.2
 93%   8 Kansas State            28 50.8,   103 Iowa State               3 16.9
 91%  20 Michigan State          27 33.2,    81 Illinois                17  8.6
 91%  10 Iowa                    31 39.8,    64 Minnesota                0 11.5
 90%  21 North Carolina          50 34.6,    76 Duke                    14  9.7
 89%  89 Alabama - Birmingham    13 32.9,   109 Arkansas State           7 18.2
 89%  41 Georgia Tech            37 34.1,    86 Maryland                18 10.6
 89%  23 Purdue                  56 35.6,    82 Indiana                  7 14.6
 87%  62 Rice                    31 34.2,    97 Texas - El Paso         13 12.7
 87%  12 Colorado State          38 35.8,    61 San Diego State         17 16.6
 86%  31 Southern Mississippi    42 24.3,    80 Memphis State           18  7.9
 86%   7 Tennessee               59 42.7,    58 Kentucky                31 24.9
 85%  51 New Mexico              51 40.7,    91 Tulsa                   13 24.4
 85%  19 Auburn                  18 29.1,    50 Alabama                 17 10.7
 81%  16 Penn State              35 33.5,    37 Wisconsin               10 17.0
 79%  74 Boston College          24 30.7,    92 Army                    20 15.0
 79%  43 Oregon                  48 33.7,    75 Oregon State            30 18.7
 77%  18 Notre Dame              21 29.6,    35 West Virginia           14 15.7
 75%  49 Tulane                  44 37.1,    90 Houston                 10 25.2
 75%  42 North Carolina State    37 34.1,    71 East Carolina           24 21.7
 74%  34 Stanford                21 36.1,    67 California              20 24.3
 74%  29 Oklahoma State          24 28.1,    73 Baylor                  14 15.8
 73%   5 California - Los Angel  31 29.7,    22 Southern California     24 17.5
 56%  66 Central Florida         34 30.4,    65 Toledo                  17 27.4
 54%   6 Michigan                20 14.4,     4 Ohio State              14 13.4
 50%  24 Georgia                 21 24.3,    30 Mississippi             14 24.0
 50%   3 Florida                 32 35.4,     2 Florida State           29 36.3

 46%  57 Arkansas                17 17.0,    46 Mississippi State        7 19.3
 45%  99 Boise State             30 29.8,   102 Idaho                   23 31.9
 44%  11 Washington State        41 35.6,     9 Washington              35 39.9
 42%  60 Utah                    20 16.1,    55 Brigham Young           14 20.9
 42%  38 Clemson                 47 18.0,    32 South Carolina          21 22.6
 41% 100 Northeast Louisiana     23 18.5,    96 Hawaii                  20 23.6
 36%  70 Fresno State            24 20.3,    39 Wyoming                  7 28.3
 30% 101 San Jose State          55 27.3,    85 Nevada - Las Vegas      48 37.2
 25%  93 Texas Christian         21 15.5,    69 Southern Methodist      18 27.3
 24%  72 Pittsburgh              30 17.7,    28 Virginia Tech           23 30.3
  9%  83 Oklahoma                32  3.8,    26 Texas Tech              21 30.2
  8% 106 North Texas             51 13.2,    56 Utah State              48 38.2

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 0.36   1 0.00  11 0.97  10 1.16   7 0.78   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  39  25 0.85

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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