prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 29 Navy 39 37.4, 87 Army 7 12.9
84% 1 Nebraska 54 40.6, 12 Texas A&M 15 19.9
77% 14 Colorado State 41 35.2, 49 New Mexico 13 21.0
71% 47 Marshall 34 28.5, 68 Toledo 14 17.7
68% 8 Tennessee 30 32.2, 23 Auburn 29 21.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 1 1.46 2 1.35 1 1.19 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 5 5 1.28
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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