prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Nebraska 42 45.4, 8 Tennessee 17 28.1
70% 3 Florida 21 37.7, 16 Penn State 6 26.5
69% 17 North Carolina 42 23.1, 33 Virginia Tech 3 13.0
69% 5 California - Los Angel 29 34.3, 19 Texas A&M 23 23.7
68% 29 Southern Mississippi 41 34.2, 65 Pittsburgh 7 24.0
64% 18 Georgia 33 27.9, 34 Wisconsin 6 19.1
64% 14 Colorado State 35 37.1, 30 Missouri 24 28.6
64% 2 Florida State 31 30.3, 4 Ohio State 14 21.5
60% 7 Kansas State 35 26.9, 12 Syracuse 18 19.8
59% 13 Louisiana State 27 24.8, 22 Notre Dame 9 18.0
56% 36 Arizona 20 32.6, 55 New Mexico 14 28.0
56% 25 Purdue 33 27.4, 39 Oklahoma State 20 21.9
55% 59 Cincinnati 35 28.8, 68 Utah State 19 26.8
55% 35 Oregon 41 26.7, 47 Air Force 13 23.8
55% 23 Auburn 21 22.2, 26 Clemson 17 19.1
55% 11 Washington 51 29.4, 15 Michigan State 23 26.7
54% 38 Mississippi 34 20.7, 42 Marshall 31 19.3
53% 6 Michigan 21 29.6, 9 Washington State 16 26.9
49% 46 Georgia Tech 35 24.9, 40 West Virginia 30 25.4
35% 20 Arizona State 17 17.6, 10 Iowa 7 26.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.64 7 1.30 1 1.43 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 20 18 1.47
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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