1998 Week 1 (3-5 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 84%   1 Nebraska                38 54.1,    89 Alabama - Birmingham     7  9.5
 77%  83 Western Michigan        37 31.9,   107 Northern Illinois       23 16.8
 77%  76 Oklahoma                37 33.1,   102 North Texas              9 21.0
 77%  68 Toledo                  24 32.4,    98 Temple                  12 20.2
 77%  66 Minnesota               17 37.6,   110 Arkansas State          14 13.5
 77%  60 Texas                   66 39.8,   111 New Mexico State        36 17.0
 77%  56 Arkansas                38 45.7,   112 Southwestern Louisiana  17 12.7
 77%  52 California              14 35.5,    90 Houston                 10 23.5
 77%  46 Northwestern            41 34.5,    85 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 20.5
 77%  43 South Carolina          38 32.5,    86 Ball State              20 15.3
 77%  35 Texas Tech              35 31.5,   101 Texas - El Paso          3  9.6
 77%  31 Missouri                37 36.3,    97 Bowling Green            0 16.9
 77%  30 Mississippi             30 28.0,    80 Memphis State           10 12.6
 77%  19 Georgia                 56 45.0,   106 Kent State               3 19.9
 77%  12 Iowa                    38 46.7,   109 Central Michigan         0 12.9
 77%  10 Washington State        20 39.2,    81 Illinois                13 15.4
 76%  44 Marshall                27 35.7,   105 Akron                   16 19.4
 76%  42 Virginia Tech           38 27.1,    69 East Carolina            3 17.2
 76%  37 North Carolina State    34 30.4,    74 Ohio                    31 18.8
 76%  33 Arizona                 27 30.9,    94 Hawaii                   6 16.1
 75%  48 Mississippi State       42 19.5,    62 Vanderbilt               0 12.3
 75%  40 Alabama                 38 26.5,    61 Brigham Young           31 18.5
 75%   5 Ohio State              34 30.4,    49 West Virginia           17 18.0
 73%  53 Air Force               42 24.0,    71 Wake Forest              0 17.3
 72%  17 Penn State              34 28.1,    24 Southern Mississippi     6 21.3
 68%  39 Oklahoma State          38 24.6,    78 Kansas                  28 17.9
 67%  67 Rice                    23 28.0,    73 Southern Methodist      17 23.5
 64%  57 Kentucky                68 34.7,    93 Louisville              34 30.4
 62%  55 Central Florida         64 38.9,    95 Louisiana Tech          30 33.3
 62%  26 Oregon                  48 31.0,    25 Michigan State          14 27.9
 60%   6 Washington              42 26.7,    16 Arizona State           38 23.9
 56%  88 Texas Christian         31 31.7,   104 Iowa State              21 29.2
 56%   8 Tennessee               34 28.1,    14 Syracuse                33 26.3
 53%  47 Wisconsin               26 25.6,    64 San Diego State         14 24.4

 49%  72 Oregon State            48 26.1,    54 Nevada - Reno            6 26.9
 46%  45 Tulane                  52 24.8,    58 Cincinnati              34 24.7
 38%  59 Utah                    20 24.4,    63 Utah State              12 26.7
 34%  22 Colorado                42 22.4,    11 Colorado State          14 28.1
 33%  23 Notre Dame              36 16.1,     7 Michigan                20 22.2
 25%  29 Virginia                19 19.9,    18 Auburn                   0 28.2
 24%  77 Boston College          41 19.2,    34 Georgia Tech            31 31.7
 24%  32 Miami - Ohio            13 19.5,    13 North Carolina          10 30.2
 23% 100 San Jose State          35 19.4,    38 Stanford                23 37.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                6 1.22   8 0.96  28 1.13   1 1.19   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  43  34 1.11

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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