prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 88 Arkansas State 34 36.3, 109 New Mexico State 31 14.6
93% 79 Alabama - Birmingham 24 57.4, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 13 12.0
93% 41 Miami - Florida 53 45.9, 107 Rutgers 17 19.2
91% 24 Virginia 52 35.8, 91 San Jose State 14 5.9
91% 3 Florida State 24 44.7, 81 Maryland 10 10.1
91% 1 Nebraska 24 46.3, 42 Oklahoma State 17 14.2
90% 21 Michigan State 38 43.8, 102 Central Michigan 7 12.0
89% 19 Air Force 56 40.5, 85 New Mexico 14 15.7
89% 7 Florida 16 38.5, 53 Alabama 10 15.5
87% 26 Notre Dame 35 42.4, 82 Stanford 17 24.0
85% 38 Georgia Tech 41 39.2, 78 Duke 13 22.2
85% 9 California - Los Angel 49 41.8, 43 Washington State 17 20.5
83% 35 Wyoming 27 25.7, 63 Utah 24 8.8
82% 70 East Carolina 30 23.6, 94 Army 25 9.4
82% 17 Texas A&M 24 31.9, 69 Kansas 21 13.3
82% 8 Tennessee 17 26.5, 32 Auburn 9 11.7
81% 25 Texas 54 44.5, 68 Iowa State 33 31.2
80% 62 Texas Christian 19 23.9, 92 Vanderbilt 16 7.7
79% 11 Michigan 12 30.0, 44 Iowa 9 14.6
79% 5 Ohio State 28 29.0, 12 Penn State 9 14.4
78% 54 Pittsburgh 35 37.3, 90 Akron 0 22.0
78% 49 Mississippi 30 28.3, 75 South Carolina 28 16.2
78% 34 Colorado State 20 35.3, 100 Texas - El Paso 17 8.7
77% 71 Nevada - Reno 31 36.9, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 27.1
77% 20 Colorado 27 26.1, 59 Oklahoma 25 12.0
75% 37 Texas Tech 31 25.2, 51 Baylor 29 14.7
75% 27 Purdue 56 29.8, 60 Minnesota 21 12.8
74% 96 Eastern Michigan 26 40.0, 108 Kent State 17 32.0
74% 52 Louisiana Tech 63 42.6, 84 Boise State 28 32.1
74% 18 Wisconsin 24 29.3, 55 Indiana 20 17.9
72% 29 Tulane 21 29.7, 47 Southern Mississippi 7 19.4
71% 36 West Virginia 45 32.9, 65 Navy 24 24.1
71% 14 Southern California 35 24.4, 30 Arizona State 24 14.8
69% 89 Louisville 62 40.9, 104 Cincinnati 19 36.5
67% 110 Ball State 18 28.8, 111 Northern Illinois 13 17.6
67% 76 Houston 35 23.8, 87 Memphis State 14 16.8
66% 48 Oregon State 20 27.2, 74 Utah State 16 21.2
64% 45 Central Florida 31 31.0, 72 Toledo 24 25.1
63% 73 Southern Methodist 28 26.8, 103 Hawaii 0 17.2
61% 99 Western Michigan 27 31.6, 98 Northeast Louisiana 14 29.5
61% 58 North Carolina 21 20.8, 57 Clemson 14 18.5
56% 40 Arkansas 27 36.3, 31 Kentucky 20 35.0
52% 64 San Diego State 24 29.6, 77 Tulsa 14 28.7
50% 56 Marshall 31 21.2, 46 Miami - Ohio 17 21.3
39% 23 Arizona 31 25.7, 16 Washington 28 32.6
38% 61 Fresno State 31 21.5, 39 Brigham Young 21 27.3
33% 101 Bowling Green 35 17.0, 80 Ohio 7 24.3
27% 15 Georgia 28 20.9, 10 Louisiana State 27 29.7
23% 95 Illinois 13 8.4, 67 Northwestern 10 24.6
20% 33 North Carolina State 38 27.5, 4 Syracuse 17 40.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.26 11 1.13 18 1.10 12 1.18 6 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 50 43 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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