1998 Week 8 (22-24 Oct) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 93%  85 Bowling Green           42 39.6,   111 Kent State              21 13.0
 93%  61 Miami - Ohio            41 44.2,   110 Cincinnati               0 19.0
 93%  34 Tulane                  52 43.6,   108 Rutgers                 24 16.7
 92%  54 Marshall                42 36.3,   107 Ball State              10  4.9
 92%  45 Central Florida         42 47.4,   112 Southwestern Louisiana  10 18.3
 92%  31 Virginia Tech           41 35.1,   101 Alabama - Birmingham     0  5.8
 92%  23 Arizona                 45 42.6,    99 Northeast Louisiana      7  5.2
 92%  18 Purdue                  42 38.9,    92 Illinois                 9  4.5
 92%   5 Ohio State              36 38.3,    65 Northwestern            10  6.0
 92%   1 Kansas State            52 50.5,    72 Iowa State               7 11.2
 91%  53 Mississippi             30 34.8,   106 Arkansas State          17  7.1
 91%  10 Air Force               42 40.5,    80 Tulsa                   21 14.9
 91%   7 Tennessee               35 35.9,    49 Alabama                 18  7.1
 90%  21 Notre Dame              20 39.4,    93 Army                    17  8.8
 90%   3 California - Los Angel  28 37.3,    42 California              16 14.7
 87%  56 Southern Methodist      10 35.8,   100 Nevada - Las Vegas       7 17.8
 87%  28 Southern Mississippi    41 30.9,    70 East Carolina            7 10.4
 85%  47 Wyoming                 34 25.0,    81 Rice                    24  8.6
 85%  46 Brigham Young           46 33.7,    95 San Jose State          43 15.0
 84%   2 Nebraska                20 35.1,    26 Missouri                13 15.1
 82%   4 Oregon                  17 44.4,    20 Southern California     13 31.1
 81%  43 Arizona State           44 36.0,    79 Stanford                38 22.2
 81%  11 Texas A&M               17 24.3,    39 Texas Tech              10 10.3
 79%  27 Washington              35 32.3,    58 Oregon State            34 18.0
 79%  14 Texas                   30 44.5,    50 Baylor                  20 33.4
 78%  62 Fresno State            32 26.0,    82 Texas - El Paso          6 15.3
 78%  36 Colorado State          42 24.0,    57 Texas Christian         21 12.1
 78%  16 Virginia                23 31.5,    35 North Carolina State    13 20.4
 78%  15 Wisconsin               31 25.2,    44 Iowa                     0 14.6
 77%  64 Louisville              35 36.1,    94 Memphis State           32 27.8
 76%  41 Oklahoma State          41 26.6,    52 Oklahoma                26 17.3
 75%  25 Michigan                21 26.6,    48 Indiana                 10 16.4
 63%  97 New Mexico              30 25.4,   105 Hawaii                  20 21.9
 63%  67 San Diego State         21 25.8,    66 Utah                    20 22.9
 63%  60 Duke                    28 22.4,    59 Clemson                 23 19.7
 63%  17 Louisiana State         41 29.9,    22 Mississippi State        6 26.7
 63%   6 Florida State           34 32.9,    13 Georgia Tech             7 28.6
 60%  76 Houston                 31 23.4,    90 North Texas              9 20.8
 59%  98 Central Michigan        26 29.7,    89 Western Michigan        24 28.4
 58%  51 North Carolina          38 20.5,    63 Wake Forest             31 18.5
 55%  74 Toledo                  24 25.2,    86 Akron                   17 23.9

 40%  40 Auburn                  32 32.9,    24 Louisiana Tech          17 35.2
 40%  30 Georgia                 28 27.6,    38 Kentucky                26 29.0
 38% 103 Boise State             30 27.3,    96 Utah State              16 30.5
 35% 109 Northern Illinois       26 26.0,   102 Eastern Michigan        14 29.2
 33%  91 Nevada - Reno           58 26.3,    78 Idaho                   23 31.2
 33%  87 Vanderbilt              17 16.9,    68 South Carolina          14 22.5
 32%  84 Navy                    32 23.7,    75 Boston College          31 29.0
 25%  37 Miami - Florida         34 25.3,    19 West Virginia           31 33.3
 23%  71 Minnesota               19 24.6,    32 Michigan State          18 34.6
 21%  69 Kansas                  33 18.4,    29 Colorado                17 30.4

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                4 1.29  12 0.78  12 0.97  10 1.18  13 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  51  41 1.03

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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