prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 100 Northeast Louisiana 34 43.5, 112 Southwestern Louisiana 24 14.8
93% 77 East Carolina 24 43.7, 110 Cincinnati 21 19.8
92% 6 Nebraska 42 38.2, 75 Iowa State 7 10.3
92% 5 Florida 45 38.5, 84 Vanderbilt 13 4.6
92% 4 Tennessee 37 52.7, 105 Alabama - Birmingham 13 0.4
92% 1 Kansas State 49 44.7, 49 Baylor 6 9.7
91% 17 Texas A&M 29 25.9, 60 Oklahoma 0 2.7
91% 15 Tulane 41 41.7, 88 Memphis State 31 14.6
90% 55 Miami - Ohio 41 29.3, 102 Northern Illinois 10 7.7
90% 30 Louisiana Tech 69 43.0, 103 Arkansas State 21 22.1
90% 11 Air Force 35 38.9, 79 Army 7 16.5
90% 9 Arizona 41 40.2, 76 Washington State 7 12.9
90% 8 Wisconsin 26 36.7, 61 Minnesota 7 9.4
88% 7 California - Los Angel 41 36.9, 51 Oregon State 34 17.6
86% 24 Notre Dame 31 31.8, 83 Boston College 26 13.0
86% 20 Purdue 56 34.4, 73 Northwestern 21 17.1
85% 53 Utah 34 29.7, 89 Texas - El Paso 27 11.5
84% 3 Florida State 45 30.2, 19 Virginia 14 12.8
83% 70 Marshall 28 31.0, 98 Central Michigan 0 14.8
83% 54 Brigham Young 46 35.7, 94 New Mexico 21 20.4
83% 16 Southern California 34 36.1, 59 Stanford 9 21.1
82% 25 Southern Mississippi 21 30.9, 68 Houston 15 17.2
81% 91 Ohio 49 33.8, 108 Eastern Michigan 21 21.7
81% 52 Nevada - Reno 26 34.9, 99 Utah State 21 21.3
81% 43 North Carolina State 38 33.8, 71 Wake Forest 27 20.6
80% 67 Kansas 23 30.9, 95 North Texas 14 17.4
78% 85 Western Michigan 24 32.7, 109 Ball State 23 22.6
78% 46 North Carolina 24 27.3, 81 Maryland 13 14.7
78% 12 Texas 37 40.5, 40 Oklahoma State 34 29.7
76% 80 Bowling Green 58 30.6, 92 Akron 21 21.9
76% 33 Arkansas 34 31.3, 48 Mississippi 0 22.2
75% 13 Oregon 27 40.8, 35 Washington 22 32.9
74% 63 Southern Methodist 33 20.3, 82 Tulsa 3 13.2
74% 21 Missouri 38 25.5, 38 Colorado 14 17.7
68% 37 Auburn 10 25.7, 45 Central Florida 6 20.2
63% 34 Kentucky 37 34.3, 32 Mississippi State 35 31.3
60% 44 Arizona State 55 22.8, 42 California 22 21.5
59% 97 San Jose State 45 26.7, 107 Hawaii 17 25.5
50% 66 San Diego State 10 20.9, 57 Fresno State 0 21.1
38% 72 Rice 14 21.5, 64 Texas Christian 12 24.2
38% 27 West Virginia 35 37.7, 10 Syracuse 28 41.0
36% 106 Boise State 55 36.0, 101 New Mexico State 51 37.8
36% 26 Michigan 27 14.0, 14 Penn State 0 18.6
25% 50 Wyoming 27 20.4, 39 Colorado State 19 28.3
22% 41 Alabama 22 21.2, 18 Louisiana State 16 32.0
21% 104 Rutgers 36 26.3, 86 Navy 33 37.0
19% 93 Temple 34 12.9, 62 Pittsburgh 33 27.7
18% 87 Illinois 31 9.7, 47 Indiana 16 23.3
11% 36 Michigan State 28 12.3, 2 Ohio State 24 37.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.18 6 0.52 11 0.95 19 1.00 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 49 38 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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