prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
93% 84 Ohio 31 41.8, 112 Kent State 21 16.7
92% 21 Virginia Tech 47 42.7, 100 Rutgers 7 4.1
91% 44 Miami - Ohio 20 38.1, 104 Akron 14 15.9
91% 29 Michigan State 41 32.2, 81 Illinois 9 4.9
90% 83 Northwestern 47 33.2, 109 Hawaii 21 13.4
90% 45 Central Florida 38 41.2, 99 New Mexico 6 18.4
90% 14 Syracuse 38 43.6, 92 Temple 7 20.1
90% 10 Air Force 22 37.2, 65 Rice 16 11.4
89% 25 Miami - Florida 38 37.1, 82 Pittsburgh 10 12.7
88% 16 Tulane 48 45.6, 80 Houston 20 25.2
88% 9 Purdue 52 41.0, 56 Indiana 7 18.8
87% 1 Kansas State 31 38.2, 18 Missouri 25 19.3
85% 61 Fresno State 24 34.8, 93 San Jose State 21 18.8
84% 35 West Virginia 35 35.0, 67 Boston College 10 18.8
84% 32 Georgia 24 29.0, 59 Mississippi 17 12.6
84% 28 Georgia Tech 63 35.1, 63 Wake Forest 35 17.7
83% 55 San Diego State 34 24.2, 87 Texas - El Paso 29 8.5
79% 76 Bowling Green 34 32.1, 106 Northern Illinois 23 21.2
79% 36 Washington 16 34.9, 75 Washington State 9 23.8
78% 95 Central Michigan 31 24.2, 105 Ball State 21 14.6
78% 43 Oklahoma State 24 31.5, 64 Baylor 10 20.5
78% 3 Ohio State 31 25.1, 15 Michigan 16 13.9
77% 69 Texas Christian 41 27.1, 97 Nevada - Las Vegas 18 17.2
76% 7 Tennessee 59 40.2, 27 Kentucky 21 31.5
76% 2 Florida State 23 24.7, 6 Florida 12 15.4
75% 52 Louisville 35 40.9, 79 Army 23 33.9
75% 39 North Carolina State 35 29.7, 72 Maryland 21 21.3
74% 31 Southern Mississippi 55 31.9, 54 Nevada - Reno 28 23.8
74% 5 California - Los Angel 34 32.0, 11 Southern California 17 24.3
71% 71 Southern Methodist 24 24.6, 91 Navy 11 17.9
71% 17 Wisconsin 24 20.7, 24 Penn State 3 14.6
70% 48 North Carolina 28 30.7, 77 Duke 6 24.4
68% 96 North Texas 19 36.6, 102 New Mexico State 11 28.3
67% 60 Clemson 28 26.0, 70 South Carolina 19 21.1
67% 53 Minnesota 49 20.4, 57 Iowa 7 15.8
64% 26 Notre Dame 39 24.6, 30 Louisiana State 36 21.1
63% 89 Idaho 36 37.2, 101 Boise State 35 34.1
54% 78 Iowa State 23 28.5, 68 Kansas 20 28.3
47% 108 Cincinnati 51 29.3, 110 Arkansas State 7 32.6
45% 41 Alabama 31 14.4, 38 Auburn 17 15.5
44% 34 Mississippi State 22 22.2, 20 Arkansas 21 23.8
42% 46 Brigham Young 26 23.8, 50 Utah 24 24.4
39% 85 East Carolina 34 23.8, 86 Memphis State 31 25.8
28% 58 Stanford 10 23.4, 49 California 3 29.7
21% 62 Oklahoma 20 13.4, 33 Texas Tech 17 25.0
20% 88 Tulsa 35 12.4, 51 Wyoming 0 24.8
19% 47 Oregon State 44 22.0, 8 Oregon 41 34.7
9% 107 Eastern Michigan 10 13.3, 74 Toledo 7 31.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.36 7 1.31 16 1.15 12 0.98 8 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 48 38 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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