rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 80-90% chance of victory: 14 Penn State 191 Akron 70-80% chance of victory: 180 Central Michigan 199 Eastern Illinois 116 Iowa State 130 Indiana State 140 Morehead State 175 Davidson 49 Western Illinois 200 Northern Illinois 93 Western Kentucky 225 Tennessee - Martin 8 Syracuse 112 Toledo 82 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 207 Mississippi Valley State 92 Bucknell 215 Morgan State 77 California 187 Rutgers 7 California - Los Angeles 188 Boise State 192 Cincinnati 216 Kent State 28 West Virginia 135 East Carolina 6 Florida 114 Western Michigan 89 Fresno State 149 Portland State 38 Georgia 166 Utah State 39 Hampton 219 Delaware State 23 Southern California 206 Hawaii 132 Illinois 214 Arkansas State 87 Indiana 198 Ball State 4 Nebraska 86 Iowa 40 Kentucky 70 Louisville 220 La Salle 222 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 34 Louisiana State 150 San Jose State 42 McNeese State 101 Northern Iowa 67 Minnesota 138 Ohio 43 Mississippi State 185 Middle Tennessee State 21 Missouri 181 Alabama - Birmingham 22 Georgia Tech 146 Navy 51 North Carolina State 94 South Carolina 54 Oklahoma State 217 Southwestern Louisiana 139 Sacramento State 202 Saint Mary's 134 South Carolina State 204 Charleston Southern 5 Tennessee 74 Wyoming 55 Tennessee State 184 Alabama State 98 Texas Southern 212 Prairie View 110 Tulsa 158 Southwest Missouri State 115 Valparaiso 222 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 15 Wisconsin 170 Murray State 60-70% chance of victory: 123 Eastern Washington 127 Idaho 12 Oregon 36 Michigan State 168 North Texas 171 Nevada - Las Vegas 156 Chattanooga 195 Samford 174 Southern Illinois 211 Southeast Missouri State 111 Maryland 162 Temple 46 Auburn 63 Appalachian State 159 Central Connecticut 163 Albany 9 Purdue 60 Central Florida 76 Clemson 75 Marshall 37 Colorado 48 Colorado State 61 Elon 161 Furman 64 Jackson State 78 Howard 137 Jacksonville State 155 Alabama A&M 73 Mississippi 148 Memphis State 16 Michigan 31 Notre Dame 25 Virginia 56 North Carolina 65 Miami - Ohio 106 Northwestern 124 Pittsburgh 118 Bowling Green 24 South Florida 85 San Diego State 52 Northwestern State 109 Southern 30 Arkansas 91 Southern Methodist 18 Texas 79 Stanford 152 Texas - El Paso 167 New Mexico 95 Monmouth 186 Towson 57 Alabama 160 Vanderbilt 44 Arizona State 50 Texas Tech 11 Tulane 33 Southern Mississippi 50-60% chance of victory: 144 The Citadel 169 East Tennessee State 157 Grambling 189 Alcorn State 97 Boston College 90 Baylor 81 Rice 117 Houston 13 Texas A&M 29 Louisiana Tech 10 Florida A&M 32 Miami - Florida 66 Oregon State 96 Nevada - Reno 173 Nicholls State 196 Northeast Louisiana 26 Arizona 80 Texas Christian 72 Utah 104 Washington State
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