1999 Week 1 (2-9 Sep) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 81%  14 Penn State              70 41.1,   193 Akron                   24 12.6
 76%  51 North Carolina State    10 34.5,    94 South Carolina           0 24.3
 75% 182 Central Michigan        33 27.3,   201 Eastern Illinois        17 20.1
 75% 139 Sacramento State        41 27.3,   204 Saint Mary's             7 19.3
 75%  89 Fresno State            34 34.7,   149 Portland State           6 25.8
 75%  67 Minnesota               33 28.2,   138 Ohio                     7 19.7
 74% 134 South Carolina State    20 17.3,   206 Charleston Southern     14  8.9
 74%  77 California              21 29.2,   189 Rutgers                  7 20.0
 73% 194 Cincinnati              41 39.1,   218 Kent State               3 30.2
 73% 110 Tulsa                   45 30.4,   158 Southwest Missouri Sta  21 23.0
 73%  87 Indiana                 21 28.4,   200 Ball State               9 19.3
 72% 140 Morehead State          40 25.1,   177 Davidson                 0 19.0
 72% 132 Illinois                41 26.3,   216 Arkansas State           3 16.4
 72% 115 Valparaiso              35 17.8,   224 Saint Francis - Pennsy   6  8.2
 72%  98 Texas Southern          34 29.3,   214 Prairie View             0 17.7
 72%  92 Bucknell                37 28.0,   217 Morgan State            10 15.8
 72%  55 Tennessee State         41 34.7,   186 Alabama State            8 23.7
 72%  43 Mississippi State       40 31.3,   187 Middle Tennessee State   7 19.7
 72%  38 Georgia                 38 27.5,   168 Utah State               7 16.1
 72%  34 Louisiana State         29 36.7,   150 San Jose State          21 25.8
 72%   5 Tennessee               42 29.4,    74 Wyoming                 17 17.1
 71% 222 La Salle                44 18.4,   224 Saint Francis - Pennsy   7 12.7
 71%  93 Western Kentucky        34 48.4,   227 Tennessee - Martin      10 33.5
 71%  82 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   13 29.6,   209 Mississippi Valley Sta   9 19.8
 71%  54 Oklahoma State          24 42.4,   219 Southwestern Louisiana   7 26.3
 71%  49 Western Illinois        27 28.0,   202 Northern Illinois       21 17.3
 71%  39 Hampton                 21 38.0,   221 Delaware State           0 18.4
 71%  23 Southern California     62 33.3,   208 Hawaii                   7 18.1
 71%  22 Georgia Tech            49 36.8,   146 Navy                    14 27.2
 71%  21 Missouri                31 33.0,   183 Alabama - Birmingham    28 18.0
 71%  15 Wisconsin               49 35.5,   172 Murray State            10 20.0
 71%   8 Syracuse                35 33.8,   112 Toledo                  12 23.6
 71%   7 California - Los Angel  38 49.2,   190 Boise State              7 31.2
 71%   6 Florida                 55 35.7,   114 Western Michigan        26 22.7
 71%   4 Nebraska                42 27.0,    86 Iowa                     7 16.7
 70% 116 Iowa State              33 26.6,   130 Indiana State            3 21.0
 70%  61 Elon                    24 25.1,   161 Furman                  22 19.3
 70%  57 Alabama                 28 25.7,   160 Vanderbilt              17 19.4
 70%  46 Auburn                  22 18.6,    63 Appalachian State       15 13.4
 70%  30 Arkansas                26 24.3,    91 Southern Methodist       0 18.7
 69%   9 Purdue                  47 33.6,    60 Central Florida         13 26.6
 68% 152 Texas - El Paso         13 28.9,   169 New Mexico              10 23.8
 68%  64 Jackson State           35 39.6,    78 Howard                  21 34.1
 68%  18 Texas                   69 38.1,    79 Stanford                17 30.4
 67%  73 Mississippi              3 25.7,   148 Memphis State            0 21.1
 66% 176 Southern Illinois       43 23.2,   213 Southeast Missouri Sta  25 19.6
 64% 156 Chattanooga             29 16.0,   197 Samford                 27 12.6
 64%  44 Arizona State           31 31.8,    50 Texas Tech              13 28.2
 63% 157 Grambling               41 27.6,   191 Alcorn State            25 23.6
 63% 124 Pittsburgh              30 29.0,   118 Bowling Green           10 26.2
 63%  65 Miami - Ohio            28 23.0,   106 Northwestern             3 20.4
 63%  25 Virginia                20 26.4,    56 North Carolina          17 22.6
 63%  13 Texas A&M               37 35.9,    29 Louisiana Tech          17 31.4
 62% 111 Maryland                 6 22.7,   162 Temple                   0 20.6
 62%  16 Michigan                26 20.9,    31 Notre Dame              22 18.7
 60%  97 Boston College          30 23.4,    90 Baylor                  29 22.0
 60%  66 Oregon State            28 32.3,    96 Nevada - Reno           13 29.5
 58%  26 Arizona                 35 25.6,    80 Texas Christian         31 24.1
 56%  72 Utah                    27 25.3,   104 Washington State         7 23.8

 48% 171 East Tennessee State    28 25.6,   144 The Citadel             10 26.6
 47% 198 Northeast Louisiana     27 23.6,   175 Nicholls State          10 24.6
 47% 127 Idaho                   48 31.7,   123 Eastern Washington      21 32.4
 41% 117 Houston                 28 23.3,    81 Rice                     0 25.2
 41%  32 Miami - Florida         57 35.5,    10 Florida A&M              3 37.8
 40%  36 Michigan State          27 33.9,    12 Oregon                  20 36.8
 39%  75 Marshall                13 20.3,    76 Clemson                 10 22.3
 39%  33 Southern Mississippi    48 30.6,    11 Tulane                  14 34.4
 34% 173 Nevada - Las Vegas      26 20.9,   170 North Texas              3 24.9
 34% 163 Albany                  35 16.6,   159 Central Connecticut     13 20.2
 34% 109 Southern                20 24.1,    52 Northwestern State      13 29.4
 34%  48 Colorado State          41 21.2,    37 Colorado                14 25.6
 32% 188 Towson                  34 23.9,    95 Monmouth                 7 29.8
 32% 155 Alabama A&M             37 18.8,   137 Jacksonville State      20 23.2
 31%  85 San Diego State         41 17.6,    24 South Florida           12 23.0
 29%  70 Louisville              56 44.3,    40 Kentucky                28 54.4
 28% 135 East Carolina           30 24.8,    28 West Virginia           23 34.5
 25% 101 Northern Iowa           41 13.4,    42 McNeese State           17 21.1

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                9 0.78  29 1.00  38 1.27   1 1.23   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  77  59 1.13

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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