prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 115 Dayton 49 39.5, 232 Austin Peay 21 9.0
92% 74 Pittsburgh 30 46.8, 229 Kent State 23 8.7
92% 59 Miami - Ohio 35 39.0, 207 Eastern Michigan 14 11.9
92% 27 Lehigh 56 38.1, 141 Monmouth 10 10.6
92% 8 Purdue 58 50.2, 178 Central Michigan 16 9.6
92% 7 Ohio State 40 46.0, 158 Ohio 16 6.0
92% 1 Kansas State 40 52.1, 148 Texas - El Paso 7 6.0
91% 146 Samford 32 39.2, 234 Tennessee - Martin 7 13.3
91% 56 Georgetown 47 40.2, 215 Siena 12 6.0
91% 22 Arkansas 44 41.7, 206 Northeast Louisiana 6 5.4
91% 14 Texas 18 43.2, 139 Rice 13 13.4
90% 30 Hofstra 28 43.2, 198 Rhode Island 13 19.8
90% 26 Tulane 48 46.1, 142 Army 28 20.0
90% 11 Texas A&M 62 37.2, 119 Tulsa 13 6.3
89% 156 East Tennessee State 26 41.8, 236 Virginia Military 17 17.5
89% 113 Wagner 33 40.0, 231 Sacred Heart 0 9.8
88% 92 Southern 42 34.0, 213 Prairie View 0 9.7
87% 98 Houston 45 39.7, 220 Southwestern Louisiana 0 16.0
87% 16 Southern California 24 32.2, 81 San Diego State 21 11.1
86% 40 Marshall 35 36.1, 125 Bowling Green 16 16.9
86% 23 California - Los Angel 35 39.7, 85 Fresno State 21 19.4
86% 21 Oregon 72 48.6, 89 Nevada - Reno 10 29.2
86% 3 Florida State 42 31.7, 34 North Carolina State 11 11.0
85% 175 Murray State 45 38.4, 228 Southeast Missouri Sta 18 20.3
85% 136 Memphis State 31 31.2, 226 Arkansas State 26 9.0
85% 13 Georgia Tech 41 44.7, 83 Central Florida 10 23.6
84% 77 Pennsylvania 17 32.4, 187 Dartmouth 6 14.3
83% 138 San Jose State 38 35.3, 212 Saint Mary's 3 19.1
83% 93 Iowa 24 31.3, 205 Northern Illinois 0 12.9
82% 33 Missouri 48 42.4, 107 Western Michigan 34 26.8
81% 128 Alabama A&M 26 35.1, 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 18.6
80% 53 Utah 38 32.9, 123 Utah State 18 17.5
78% 164 Weber State 27 28.2, 224 Idaho State 24 11.9
78% 62 Hampton 26 20.8, 122 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 9.8
78% 39 Virginia 35 33.0, 96 Wake Forest 7 18.3
78% 2 Nebraska 20 25.4, 12 Southern Mississippi 13 14.8
77% 150 Holy Cross 30 20.1, 193 Lafayette 12 10.9
77% 73 Jackson State 31 40.8, 129 Grambling 6 28.8
77% 24 Fairfield 34 27.0, 64 Duquesne 21 14.9
76% 208 Butler 21 23.6, 235 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 10.3
76% 112 Toledo 23 23.0, 202 Ball State 10 14.1
76% 55 Oklahoma 41 26.3, 97 Baylor 10 16.1
75% 91 Idaho 28 36.7, 168 Washington State 17 23.4
75% 87 Western Illinois 14 37.1, 196 Nicholls State 13 22.4
73% 111 Troy State 27 22.5, 203 Alabama State 20 13.1
73% 86 Colgate 49 34.4, 170 Fordham 24 25.5
70% 49 Minnesota 55 32.6, 76 Illinois State 7 24.3
67% 225 Delaware State 26 40.9, 230 Norfolk State 6 33.2
67% 166 Eastern Kentucky 31 23.4, 201 Indiana State 24 16.8
66% 25 Air Force 31 29.8, 51 Washington 21 24.3
65% 103 Howard 31 31.2, 133 Bethune - Cookman 27 25.8
65% 63 Kentucky 44 34.7, 104 Indiana 35 29.9
64% 165 Southern Illinois 34 32.5, 209 Eastern Illinois 6 27.0
64% 152 Maine 21 22.8, 163 Richmond 14 18.4
64% 100 Boston College 14 30.1, 149 Navy 10 25.5
63% 186 Middle Tennessee State 52 23.1, 194 Wofford 42 19.1
63% 50 Colorado 51 34.1, 61 Kansas 17 29.7
62% 67 South Florida 21 27.9, 114 Western Kentucky 6 22.5
61% 204 Iona 31 29.4, 219 La Salle 23 25.6
61% 192 Akron 25 21.0, 179 Temple 15 18.1
61% 48 Mississippi State 29 21.0, 52 Oklahoma State 11 18.0
59% 200 Connecticut 23 25.2, 195 Buffalo 0 23.1
59% 159 Villanova 26 23.6, 145 Massachusetts 21 21.6
59% 94 Iowa State 24 23.7, 130 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 21.6
59% 6 Florida 23 26.1, 5 Tennessee 21 24.0
55% 183 Stephen F. Austin 28 18.9, 160 Southwest Texas State 17 18.1
55% 108 Brown 25 28.9, 131 Yale 24 27.9
54% 42 Tennessee State 42 33.4, 35 Florida A&M 25 32.7
52% 157 Eastern Washington 48 32.3, 182 Portland State 39 31.8
50% 41 Louisiana Tech 29 35.3, 46 Alabama 28 35.3
49% 184 Harvard 24 9.5, 151 Columbia 7 9.8
48% 117 Northwestern 15 19.3, 144 Duke 12 19.8
46% 153 Furman 52 26.9, 167 William & Mary 6 27.7
41% 95 East Carolina 21 19.1, 99 South Carolina 3 21.2
39% 60 Brigham Young 34 24.0, 36 Colorado State 13 26.9
36% 223 Tennessee Tech 18 20.3, 197 Liberty 15 25.6
36% 66 Maryland 33 23.6, 31 West Virginia 0 28.0
36% 45 Oregon State 48 31.5, 19 Georgia Southern 41 36.4
33% 180 James Madison 35 19.4, 147 New Hampshire 28 25.9
33% 110 Saint John's 16 9.5, 65 Marist 0 14.3
32% 10 Penn State 27 21.9, 4 Miami - Florida 23 28.4
30% 47 Auburn 41 16.8, 28 Louisiana State 7 24.0
30% 17 Michigan 18 23.7, 9 Syracuse 13 31.2
29% 177 New Mexico 45 20.5, 102 Northern Arizona 14 28.2
28% 29 Michigan State 23 18.9, 18 Notre Dame 13 26.7
27% 216 Hawaii 34 26.1, 161 Boise State 19 35.0
25% 233 Saint Peter's 33 7.4, 221 Canisius 22 14.1
25% 126 Towson 27 18.6, 82 Bucknell 20 28.2
23% 127 Southern Utah 31 17.2, 70 McNeese State 24 29.7
22% 80 Illinois 41 27.0, 38 Louisville 36 38.7
21% 155 Cornell 20 9.4, 84 Princeton 3 21.9
21% 120 Valparaiso 17 12.7, 44 Robert Morris 13 23.7
20% 105 Stanford 50 25.8, 43 Arizona 22 39.2
18% 169 Vanderbilt 37 13.8, 79 Mississippi 34 28.1
15% 222 California Poly 40 20.5, 101 Montana State 37 38.0
12% 172 New Mexico State 35 25.1, 37 Arizona State 7 48.6
10% 214 North Texas 21 4.8, 68 Texas Tech 14 34.2
9% 174 Cincinnati 17 15.1, 15 Wisconsin 12 44.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 1.11 21 1.04 27 0.74 24 0.97 13 1.01 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 98 69 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net