prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 173 Wofford 55 39.8, 235 Virginia Military 10 10.4
92% 159 Murray State 62 48.5, 236 Tennessee - Martin 14 17.7
92% 57 Utah 42 38.8, 192 Northeast Louisiana 0 10.3
92% 56 Montana 48 63.8, 209 California State - Nor 27 35.3
92% 37 Hofstra 58 44.2, 186 Delaware State 14 15.4
92% 34 Arkansas 58 47.6, 185 Middle Tennessee State 6 16.4
92% 27 Fairfield 27 48.8, 220 Siena 0 4.7
92% 23 Tennessee State 43 51.0, 207 Eastern Illinois 25 10.6
92% 16 Georgia Southern 70 52.0, 200 Western Carolina 7 9.0
92% 12 Texas A&M 45 46.4, 176 Baylor 13 4.3
92% 6 Lehigh 30 46.6, 210 Dartmouth 14 5.2
92% 4 Virginia Tech 58 41.1, 160 Rutgers 20 6.4
92% 3 Kansas State 50 48.1, 120 Kansas 9 13.4
91% 99 Drake 38 34.2, 223 Saint Mary's 7 6.9
91% 40 Jackson State 44 42.7, 183 Alabama State 17 15.1
90% 157 Central Connecticut 35 32.3, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 13 8.3
90% 85 Idaho 28 34.3, 211 North Texas 10 9.1
90% 1 Nebraska 49 32.8, 52 Iowa State 14 7.7
89% 177 Grambling 42 39.4, 232 Mississippi Valley Sta 19 17.4
89% 124 Vanderbilt 58 33.1, 221 The Citadel 0 11.5
89% 109 Toledo 47 33.0, 215 Kent State 7 11.2
89% 88 South Florida 28 36.1, 204 Liberty 0 14.3
89% 78 Illinois State 20 44.2, 198 Indiana State 17 21.8
89% 66 Northern Iowa 42 37.9, 182 California Poly 21 14.8
89% 11 Georgia Tech 31 43.6, 79 North Carolina 24 20.8
88% 15 Penn State 31 32.9, 106 Iowa 7 11.8
86% 22 Notre Dame 48 36.1, 96 Arizona State 17 15.6
86% 10 Tennessee 37 28.0, 54 Georgia 20 10.0
85% 191 La Salle 19 37.3, 231 Canisius 6 18.5
85% 152 Northern Arizona 43 32.9, 228 Idaho State 28 15.7
85% 70 Colgate 56 35.0, 187 Lafayette 14 17.7
85% 45 Brigham Young 38 34.2, 138 California 28 15.7
85% 31 Air Force 19 32.4, 126 Navy 14 15.8
84% 38 Duquesne 10 23.0, 94 Saint John's 3 7.7
84% 13 Syracuse 24 35.6, 91 Pittsburgh 17 18.0
83% 136 Washington State 44 33.3, 213 Southwestern Louisiana 0 16.4
83% 26 Florida A&M 40 46.1, 112 Howard 34 31.4
82% 194 Stony Brook 48 21.3, 233 Sacred Heart 21 8.1
82% 121 Utah State 20 37.5, 189 Arkansas State 14 22.2
81% 140 Texas - El Paso 42 21.9, 206 Southern Methodist 28 7.5
81% 62 Southern 29 27.0, 128 Alabama A&M 12 12.7
81% 33 Georgetown 41 22.6, 118 Marist 40 8.6
80% 196 Iona 20 21.6, 230 Saint Peter's 15 9.8
80% 69 Yale 34 22.6, 158 Holy Cross 14 10.4
79% 7 Florida 31 35.4, 49 Louisiana State 10 22.5
78% 164 Montana State 29 39.0, 216 Weber State 6 26.4
77% 180 Central Michigan 38 27.6, 227 Buffalo 19 16.9
77% 171 Northern Illinois 37 27.1, 218 Ball State 10 15.9
77% 148 Massachusetts 77 30.0, 188 Northeastern 0 19.6
77% 80 Cornell 24 22.0, 125 Harvard 23 12.4
77% 14 Southern Mississippi 39 23.1, 46 East Carolina 22 13.3
76% 163 Pennsylvania 35 28.8, 205 Fordham 18 18.4
76% 113 Dayton 41 30.1, 154 San Diego 0 20.3
76% 104 Western Michigan 40 36.6, 184 Eastern Michigan 37 26.5
75% 153 Richmond 41 25.6, 199 Rhode Island 38 16.5
75% 75 Kentucky 30 26.9, 147 South Carolina 10 17.7
75% 67 Oklahoma State 41 27.6, 92 Texas Tech 21 18.2
73% 195 Tennessee Tech 21 20.4, 224 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 13.6
71% 71 Troy State 24 32.8, 93 Northwestern State 21 24.7
70% 156 Valparaiso 38 22.5, 212 Butler 20 15.9
70% 144 Eastern Kentucky 30 23.6, 170 Western Kentucky 10 16.7
70% 111 Brown 53 22.0, 143 Princeton 30 15.0
70% 2 Florida State 31 28.7, 8 Miami - Florida 21 21.3
68% 222 South Carolina State 27 27.6, 226 Norfolk State 23 21.0
68% 81 Miami - Ohio 45 31.0, 137 Bowling Green 31 24.7
67% 193 Alcorn State 61 25.8, 208 Prairie View 0 19.9
67% 97 Sacramento State 41 37.7, 115 Portland State 14 32.5
67% 41 Maryland 17 23.1, 90 Wake Forest 14 17.0
67% 36 Colorado 46 34.8, 50 Missouri 39 28.7
63% 73 Houston 23 21.4, 82 Cincinnati 20 17.3
62% 18 Texas 38 26.0, 25 Oklahoma 28 22.7
61% 131 Boise State 41 29.5, 133 Eastern Washington 7 26.4
61% 9 Michigan State 34 19.8, 5 Michigan 31 17.2
60% 181 Stephen F. Austin 40 26.4, 179 McNeese State 14 23.8
60% 165 Southwest Texas State 16 23.9, 197 Nicholls State 0 21.8
60% 61 Mississippi 20 37.6, 63 Tulane 13 35.2
60% 35 Mississippi State 18 14.9, 42 Auburn 16 13.2
59% 108 Indiana 34 24.4, 100 Northwestern 17 22.6
59% 87 Albany 37 29.2, 119 Wagner 21 27.3
56% 72 Furman 35 21.6, 65 Appalachian State 21 20.4
56% 29 Ohio State 25 32.0, 24 Purdue 22 30.9
49% 101 Texas Christian 42 27.0, 89 San Jose State 0 27.1
41% 83 North Carolina State 35 18.5, 53 Clemson 31 20.3
41% 76 Fresno State 44 22.5, 51 Colorado State 13 24.3
39% 145 Columbia 10 19.0, 98 Bucknell 7 22.1
38% 132 Texas Southern 20 16.1, 135 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 19.0
38% 110 Rice 38 14.5, 122 Hawaii 19 17.1
38% 19 Wisconsin 20 16.4, 20 Minnesota 17 19.6
36% 225 Sam Houston State 51 31.6, 203 Jacksonville State 17 36.8
36% 47 California - Los Angel 34 34.9, 21 Oregon 29 39.1
34% 178 Akron 41 21.4, 123 Ohio 28 26.8
33% 167 Nevada - Reno 23 34.3, 155 New Mexico State 16 39.5
32% 39 Washington 47 26.9, 32 Oregon State 21 33.3
25% 142 North Carolina A&T 41 10.5, 77 Hampton 24 18.9
24% 161 Youngstown State 43 21.6, 117 Southern Illinois 37 32.7
22% 201 William & Mary 45 19.9, 116 Villanova 10 31.1
21% 151 Army 59 30.5, 58 Louisville 52 43.4
21% 130 Western Illinois 20 19.2, 43 Elon 14 32.2
21% 102 Memphis State 38 11.9, 60 Alabama - Birmingham 14 23.5
19% 202 Temple 24 10.3, 95 Boston College 14 24.0
15% 217 Morgan State 28 13.5, 105 Towson 22 30.7
15% 127 New Mexico 24 14.6, 44 San Diego State 21 32.1
15% 103 Arizona 31 18.1, 17 Southern California 24 36.6
12% 150 Duke 24 16.0, 48 Virginia 17 37.2
8% 190 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 6.0, 59 Wyoming 32 34.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.16 22 0.92 26 1.01 30 0.98 18 1.03 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105 81 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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