rank projected winning team rank projected losing team --- ---------------------- --- ---------------------- 90-100% chance of victory: 50 Fresno State 205 Southern Methodist 79 Albany 232 Mississippi Valley State 28 Arkansas 151 South Carolina 14 Lehigh 156 Delaware 2 Florida State 97 Wake Forest 35 Georgetown 213 Davidson 23 Hofstra 160 Richmond 3 Kansas State 123 Utah State 76 Miami - Ohio 218 Kent State 68 Louisiana Tech 199 Middle Tennessee State 7 Miami - Florida 181 Temple 89 Robert Morris 233 Sacred Heart 87 Saint John's 228 Saint Peter's 12 Southern Mississippi 138 Army 33 Tennessee State 236 Tennessee - Martin 17 Texas A&M 134 Kansas 66 Furman 230 The Citadel 58 Tulane 220 Southwestern Louisiana 183 Chattanooga 235 Virginia Military 111 Western Michigan 225 Buffalo 65 Yale 193 Dartmouth 80-90% chance of victory: 10 Georgia Southern 78 Appalachian State 6 Florida 48 Auburn 182 Bethune - Cookman 224 South Carolina State 107 Brown 188 Rhode Island 93 Sacramento State 201 California State - North 40 California - Los Angeles 128 California 114 Central Florida 214 Nicholls State 16 Georgia Tech 116 Duke 145 East Tennessee State 208 Liberty 161 Eastern Washington 226 Idaho State 108 Harvard 212 Fordham 34 Fairfield 170 Holy Cross 176 Indiana State 221 Southeast Missouri State 119 Marist 200 La Salle 21 Marshall 91 Toledo 55 Morehead State 141 Valparaiso 112 Hampton 227 Norfolk State 102 Boise State 204 North Texas 80 Wyoming 209 Northeast Louisiana 152 New Hampshire 223 Northeastern 190 Monmouth 234 Saint Francis - Pennsylv 52 Texas Christian 171 Tulsa 27 Washington 120 Arizona State 99 West Virginia 185 Rutgers 18 Wisconsin 96 Indiana 70-80% chance of victory: 84 Arizona 139 Texas - El Paso 147 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 191 Alabama State 36 Duquesne 104 Bucknell 215 Charleston Southern 231 Austin Peay 45 Colgate 88 Cornell 42 Jackson State 70 Southern 126 North Carolina A&T 194 Morgan State 159 Murray State 196 Eastern Illinois 57 Montana 154 Northern Arizona 9 Penn State 31 Ohio State 131 Portland State 167 Montana State 168 Princeton 197 Lafayette 5 Michigan State 25 Purdue 98 Rice 140 San Jose State 53 Elon 144 Samford 37 Colorado 110 Texas Tech 121 Wagner 165 Central Connecticut 136 Youngstown State 172 California Poly 60-70% chance of victory: 39 Air Force 38 Utah 100 Idaho 148 Arkansas State 77 Pittsburgh 135 Boston College 177 Central Michigan 169 Northern Illinois 158 Columbia 164 Pennsylvania 149 Connecticut 155 Villanova 143 Ohio 179 Eastern Michigan 115 Howard 129 Towson 26 Minnesota 46 Illinois 198 McNeese State 219 Jacksonville State 59 Kentucky 67 Louisiana State 43 Maryland 60 Clemson 71 Memphis State 69 Louisville 24 Alabama 47 Mississippi 49 Missouri 51 Iowa State 54 Brigham Young 92 New Mexico 72 North Carolina 86 Houston 74 North Carolina State 73 Virginia 19 Notre Dame 30 Southern California 162 Stephen F. Austin 195 Sam Houston State 203 San Diego 206 Butler 94 South Florida 109 Illinois State 64 Northern Iowa 113 Southwest Missouri State 85 Troy State 125 Southwest Texas State 189 Tennessee Tech 187 Western Kentucky 8 Virginia Tech 13 Syracuse 175 Southern Utah 210 Weber State 157 Wofford 207 Western Carolina 122 Western Illinois 133 Southern Illinois 50-60% chance of victory: 142 Bowling Green 173 Akron 90 Cincinnati 81 Alabama - Birmingham 61 San Diego State 75 Colorado State 82 Dayton 101 Drake 95 Massachusetts 132 Maine 117 Northwestern 106 Iowa 211 Siena 202 Iona 62 Stanford 44 Oregon State 127 Texas Southern 118 Alcorn State 63 Georgia 83 Vanderbilt 163 William & Mary 146 James Madison
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