prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 177 Central Connecticut 37 36.4, 234 Sacred Heart 12 7.3
92% 159 William & Mary 35 39.3, 236 Virginia Military 14 7.2
92% 140 Eastern Kentucky 54 47.7, 235 Tennessee - Martin 7 8.3
92% 78 Albany 55 47.3, 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 7.3
92% 57 Georgetown 14 48.6, 230 Saint Peter's 3 10.9
92% 34 Tennessee State 28 38.5, 195 Western Kentucky 21 11.8
92% 31 Colgate 43 49.7, 228 Saint Mary's 13 7.3
92% 22 Marshall 59 48.0, 226 Buffalo 3 5.8
92% 19 Lehigh 62 40.5, 149 Holy Cross 8 9.2
92% 15 Georgia Southern 34 57.9, 223 The Citadel 17 4.4
92% 7 Miami - Florida 31 38.2, 135 Boston College 28 9.3
90% 33 Yale 41 33.2, 174 Columbia 29 10.2
89% 114 Western Michigan 28 40.5, 213 Ball State 0 18.4
89% 48 Montana 25 51.9, 167 Eastern Washington 7 29.9
89% 11 Southern Mississippi 28 30.3, 79 Cincinnati 20 8.5
88% 151 Southern Utah 63 39.4, 222 Idaho State 47 18.7
88% 145 Villanova 45 43.5, 224 Northeastern 16 22.1
88% 108 Towson 25 37.5, 210 Fordham 23 16.0
88% 90 Troy State 41 41.8, 202 Sam Houston State 16 18.9
87% 37 Brigham Young 29 39.5, 171 Nevada - Las Vegas 0 20.2
87% 3 Kansas State 44 35.2, 47 Oklahoma State 21 16.3
86% 132 Portland State 31 41.1, 225 Weber State 14 22.1
86% 109 Drake 53 36.1, 215 Butler 6 18.0
86% 83 West Virginia 20 33.1, 180 Temple 17 14.5
86% 77 Robert Morris 34 26.2, 197 Monmouth 16 9.1
85% 152 Stephen F. Austin 38 33.3, 218 Nicholls State 7 15.7
84% 25 Mississippi State 17 25.1, 86 Louisiana State 16 10.1
83% 208 Siena 38 23.3, 229 Canisius 6 9.1
83% 73 Furman 48 34.5, 150 East Tennessee State 21 18.3
83% 4 Florida State 17 36.4, 40 Clemson 14 20.4
82% 164 Northern Illinois 50 31.4, 214 Kent State 7 16.4
82% 29 Florida A&M 41 38.8, 122 Hampton 6 23.7
81% 187 Bethune - Cookman 30 36.0, 221 South Carolina State 27 21.5
81% 123 Valparaiso 14 22.7, 184 San Diego 7 10.0
81% 49 Southern 28 30.5, 120 Alcorn State 6 16.0
81% 42 Fairfield 24 19.1, 94 Saint John's 16 7.3
80% 117 Harvard 13 20.7, 168 Princeton 6 9.0
80% 88 Texas Tech 35 30.0, 181 Baylor 7 16.6
79% 99 Pittsburgh 38 33.7, 189 Rutgers 15 21.3
79% 80 Fresno State 24 34.3, 137 Texas - El Paso 23 21.2
78% 172 Chattanooga 56 28.3, 212 Western Carolina 28 15.7
78% 103 South Florida 42 24.4, 156 New Hampshire 41 13.4
78% 89 Vanderbilt 11 26.1, 170 South Carolina 10 15.1
78% 63 Appalachian State 21 32.2, 155 Wofford 20 20.3
78% 58 Jackson State 28 29.9, 147 Alabama A&M 18 18.7
77% 139 Army 35 33.7, 183 New Mexico State 18 22.7
76% 113 Hawaii 35 30.5, 191 Tulsa 21 20.9
76% 35 East Carolina 52 37.6, 74 Tulane 7 28.0
75% 128 Boise State 52 32.2, 161 Nevada - Reno 17 22.7
74% 102 North Carolina A&T 51 32.4, 138 Howard 0 23.2
72% 129 James Madison 48 25.0, 158 Connecticut 14 17.3
72% 101 Idaho 31 28.4, 133 Utah State 3 20.4
72% 27 Oregon 44 38.6, 69 Arizona 41 31.4
71% 32 Utah 38 24.7, 51 San Diego State 16 17.6
70% 8 Wisconsin 40 25.6, 14 Michigan State 10 18.8
69% 144 Ohio 17 35.9, 163 Bowling Green 14 29.4
69% 59 Maryland 45 23.7, 85 North Carolina 7 17.1
68% 196 Delaware State 34 29.3, 205 Morgan State 20 23.0
68% 106 Illinois State 55 40.4, 166 Southern Illinois 48 34.8
68% 76 Massachusetts 26 29.3, 134 Delaware 19 23.0
67% 75 Arizona State 33 23.7, 96 Washington State 21 18.1
67% 60 Oregon State 55 29.5, 70 California - Los Angel 7 23.8
63% 65 Louisville 39 34.3, 68 Houston 33 30.5
62% 67 Louisiana Tech 46 30.7, 105 Central Florida 35 27.3
62% 50 Georgia 49 26.6, 54 Kentucky 34 23.3
61% 9 Tennessee 21 27.8, 21 Alabama 7 24.6
60% 126 Marist 20 22.3, 119 Wagner 17 20.0
60% 43 Washington 31 19.0, 84 California 27 16.8
59% 110 Brown 44 30.7, 141 Pennsylvania 37 28.9
57% 36 Hofstra 21 26.7, 52 Elon 9 25.4
56% 154 Arkansas State 14 18.5, 188 North Texas 10 17.4
53% 179 Tennessee Tech 14 18.6, 200 Eastern Illinois 7 18.0
53% 162 California State - Nor 24 31.0, 185 Montana State 21 30.4
50% 23 Oklahoma 51 20.6, 16 Texas A&M 6 20.6
48% 203 Northeast Louisiana 31 21.9, 211 Southwestern Louisiana 7 22.2
48% 93 Wake Forest 47 18.5, 61 Alabama - Birmingham 3 18.8
46% 10 Penn State 31 28.2, 17 Purdue 25 29.0
44% 97 North Carolina State 31 23.1, 107 Duke 24 24.2
41% 176 Rhode Island 23 18.8, 143 Maine 14 20.5
40% 160 Murray State 34 27.3, 136 Samford 27 29.6
38% 87 Colorado State 24 21.1, 91 Wyoming 13 24.2
38% 81 Rice 42 15.2, 41 Texas Christian 21 18.0
36% 209 Liberty 34 16.5, 204 Charleston Southern 14 20.6
35% 130 Indiana 38 21.5, 118 Iowa 31 26.4
33% 146 Akron 35 24.4, 131 Navy 29 30.1
30% 112 Kansas 21 29.0, 55 Missouri 0 35.6
28% 192 Grambling 24 19.4, 148 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 19 27.1
26% 28 Ohio State 20 15.6, 13 Minnesota 17 23.8
25% 157 Northern Arizona 51 22.3, 116 Sacramento State 49 32.1
25% 66 Colorado 16 22.5, 38 Iowa State 12 31.8
24% 169 Indiana State 39 19.0, 92 Western Illinois 36 28.9
24% 12 Texas 24 20.9, 1 Nebraska 20 30.5
23% 53 Stanford 35 25.0, 26 Southern California 31 35.9
22% 198 Dartmouth 20 9.7, 115 Cornell 17 20.1
18% 220 Jacksonville State 17 19.1, 142 Southwest Texas State 10 34.3
18% 173 Eastern Michigan 20 14.2, 100 Toledo 13 28.6
17% 206 McNeese State 20 21.1, 104 Northwestern State 17 36.4
15% 153 Youngstown State 29 15.4, 62 Northern Iowa 20 32.8
12% 201 Lafayette 22 13.5, 71 Bucknell 21 33.9
10% 227 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 15.9, 111 Southwest Missouri Sta 23 38.9
9% 72 Illinois 35 9.3, 5 Michigan 29 36.0
8% 231 Mississippi Valley Sta 18 8.3, 125 Texas Southern 13 35.3
8% 217 Iona 62 6.8, 56 Duquesne 50 35.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.00 21 1.03 25 0.90 31 0.99 15 0.80 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 103 74 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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