1999 Week 9 (30 Oct) Results for College Football

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 92% 116 Morehead State          47 54.0,   232 Austin Peay              7 17.7
 92%  80 Elon                    38 42.2,   214 Charleston Southern     13  9.0
 92%  59 Montana                 73 58.9,   222 Idaho State             23 27.5
 92%  33 Florida A&M             48 56.1,   195 Delaware State          19 20.2
 92%  21 Ohio State              41 35.8,   129 Iowa                    11  6.9
 92%  17 Marshall                41 40.9,   134 Northern Illinois        9 10.5
 92%  16 Lehigh                  44 49.9,   165 Towson                  39 14.4
 92%  14 Notre Dame              28 42.4,   130 Navy                    24 11.8
 92%   9 Tennessee               30 37.7,   141 South Carolina           7  2.5
 92%   4 Wisconsin               35 37.8,   110 Northwestern            19  6.4
 92%   3 Nebraska                24 43.1,    96 Kansas                  17 12.1
 92%   2 Kansas State            48 63.9,   183 Baylor                   7  3.9
 92%   1 Virginia Tech           30 46.1,    79 Pittsburgh              17 10.6
 91%  95 Troy State              20 36.4,   219 Nicholls State           0 11.0
 91%  46 Massachusetts           31 34.2,   163 Rhode Island             9  8.6
 90%  67 North Carolina A&T      19 39.1,   203 Bethune - Cookman       18 16.1
 90%  12 Miami - Florida         28 41.6,    86 West Virginia           20 18.3
 89%  69 Jackson State           41 32.3,   172 Arkansas - Pine Bluff    0 10.5
 89%  11 Michigan                34 43.0,   111 Indiana                 31 20.1
 88% 205 Monmouth                37 28.8,   234 Sacred Heart            17  8.7
 88% 169 California State - Nor  30 40.8,   227 Weber State             28 18.7
 88% 137 Arkansas State          31 34.8,   218 Southwestern Louisiana  27 13.8
 88% 119 Duquesne                49 31.6,   208 Siena                   17 11.0
 88% 106 Saint John's            21 25.2,   212 La Salle                10  6.7
 88%  30 Georgia Southern        55 41.2,   158 East Tennessee State     6 20.2
 87% 223 Western Carolina        40 32.6,   235 Virginia Military        2 12.7
 87% 211 Southeast Missouri Sta  36 35.5,   236 Tennessee - Martin       7 17.1
 87% 136 Stephen F. Austin       33 44.9,   220 Jacksonville State      16 23.1
 85% 117 New Mexico              27 26.1,   192 Nevada - Las Vegas       6  9.5
 85%  94 Delaware                37 40.9,   206 Northeastern            34 23.2
 85%  62 Yale                    23 35.5,   154 Pennsylvania            19 16.7
 85%  20 Georgia Tech            48 44.6,    78 North Carolina State    21 27.6
 84% 159 Hampton                 39 31.7,   215 South Carolina State    27 15.0
 84%  50 Tennessee State         33 39.5,   125 Eastern Kentucky        28 22.0
 84%   5 Florida                 30 36.8,    38 Georgia                 14 19.9
 83% 152 Harvard                 63 21.5,   201 Dartmouth               21  8.3
 83%   8 Texas                   44 31.2,    52 Iowa State              41 16.0
 83%   6 Florida State           35 34.2,    43 Virginia                10 18.9
 82%  85 Fresno State            28 35.9,   186 Tulsa                   14 21.3
 82%  77 Appalachian State       62 30.0,   148 Chattanooga             14 14.9
 81% 155 Ohio                    37 23.9,   221 Ball State              25 10.9
 80% 132 Samford                 35 26.7,   190 Liberty                 28 13.4
 80% 107 Drake                   41 22.2,   191 San Diego               20 10.0
 79% 204 Iona                    34 32.3,   231 Canisius                12 19.7
 79% 131 Brown                   37 43.5,   209 Fordham                 18 31.3
 79%  84 Northern Iowa           44 31.1,   138 Indiana State           21 18.2
 79%  10 Penn State              27 29.1,    41 Illinois                 7 16.9
 78%  99 Dayton                  34 27.0,   145 Valparaiso              10 15.7
 78%  74 James Madison           13 22.2,   114 South Florida            3 12.1
 78%  34 Oregon                  20 38.7,    64 Arizona State           17 27.3
 78%  26 Oregon State            27 30.9,    89 Washington State        13 19.6
 77% 126 Texas - El Paso         42 35.2,   167 San Jose State          26 24.5
 77% 102 Central Florida         31 33.1,   142 Eastern Michigan         6 21.8
 77%  24 Arkansas                34 27.3,    39 Auburn                  10 16.7
 77%  22 East Carolina           19 23.5,    75 Houston                  3 13.7
 76% 151 Wofford                 47 29.8,   210 The Citadel             16 19.9
 76% 128 Northwestern State      36 23.3,   166 Southwest Texas State   21 14.5
 76%  56 Louisville              23 44.3,    91 Alabama - Birmingham    14 36.1
 76%  23 Brigham Young           27 26.7,    40 Air Force               20 17.1
 75% 217 Kent State              41 26.8,   226 Buffalo                 20 17.8
 75% 162 Northern Arizona        49 34.7,   193 Montana State           20 25.8
 75% 149 Temple                  56 25.7,   182 Rutgers                 28 16.6
 75%  81 Richmond                28 34.9,   146 Connecticut             21 25.6
 73%  28 Texas A&M               21 28.6,    42 Oklahoma State           3 20.2
 71% 164 Alabama A&M             15 31.3,   196 Alabama State           10 23.7
 69% 181 Northeast Louisiana     10 31.9,   197 Middle Tennessee State   0 25.1
 68%  63 Louisiana Tech          34 30.0,   113 Toledo                  17 23.5
 67% 160 Bowling Green           31 35.5,   170 Central Michigan         7 29.9
 67% 124 William & Mary          37 27.9,   139 Maine                   13 21.8
 67%  60 Memphis State           49 28.1,   109 Tulane                   7 22.5
 65%  66 Texas Christian         34 26.3,   115 Hawaii                  14 21.5
 64% 135 Portland State          42 30.8,   176 California Poly         28 26.4
 62% 198 Howard                  29 31.9,   216 Norfolk State           23 28.6
 62% 188 Princeton               44 16.7,   184 Columbia                15 14.0
 62%  61 Arizona                 33 29.8,   100 California - Los Angel   7 26.4
 61% 179 Nevada - Reno           41 20.6,   174 North Texas             28 18.2
 61%  72 Missouri                34 24.7,    71 Texas Tech               7 21.9
 60%  65 Furman                  28 27.0,    92 North Carolina           3 24.6
 60%  51 Washington              35 33.4,    44 Stanford                30 31.5
 59% 178 Western Kentucky        38 20.4,   200 Eastern Illinois        15 18.6
 59% 157 Eastern Washington      26 31.1,   147 Sacramento State        21 29.3
 59%  87 Western Michigan        24 36.5,   127 Akron                   10 34.7
 56% 173 Texas Southern          21 23.5,   187 Grambling               20 22.5
 55% 112 Illinois State          31 29.5,   133 Youngstown State        28 28.6
 54%  48 Mississippi             42 19.5,    73 Louisiana State         23 18.7
 53% 168 Southern Illinois       52 36.1,   150 Southwest Missouri Sta  49 35.6
 53%  97 Boise State             33 24.6,   118 Utah State              27 24.0
 53%  68 Cincinnati              52 21.4,    90 Miami - Ohio            42 20.9
 51%  35 Clemson                 12 19.5,    45 Wake Forest              3 19.3

 49% 207 Stony Brook             27 21.4,   189 Central Connecticut     14 21.6
 48%  25 Alabama                 35 20.5,    18 Southern Mississippi    14 20.8
 42%  83 Georgetown              21 26.5,    57 Fairfield               14 28.1
 41% 153 Cornell                 31 21.9,   123 Wagner                  14 23.5
 41% 144 Murray State            22 22.0,   156 Tennessee Tech          11 23.9
 41% 108 Villanova               31 33.8,   120 New Hampshire           28 35.4
 39% 103 Robert Morris           30 25.2,   104 Albany                  20 28.4
 37% 199 Sam Houston State       20 25.9,   194 McNeese State            3 29.8
 33% 229 Mississippi Valley Sta  14 17.2,   224 Prairie View            12 22.9
 33%  15 Purdue                  33 22.4,    13 Minnesota               28 28.1
 29%  76 California              17 16.9,    29 Southern California      7 23.9
 28%  70 Colorado State          31 19.2,    27 Utah                    24 26.8
 27% 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy  21 11.5,   230 Saint Peter's            8 18.5
 26% 202 Lafayette               38 16.8,   140 Marist                  13 25.1
 18% 225 Saint Mary's            28 11.3,   171 Holy Cross              26 26.0
 18% 180 New Mexico State        42 20.5,    82 Idaho                   14 35.6
 16%  55 Colorado                38 21.1,     7 Oklahoma                24 38.3
 15% 105 Duke                    25 13.9,    36 Maryland                22 31.7
 15% 101 Boston College          24 13.4,    32 Syracuse                23 31.0
 11% 177 Southern Methodist      27  7.8,    47 Rice                     2 29.5

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               18 1.19  16 1.16  27 1.12  33 0.96  15 1.09   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 109  89 1.07

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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