prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 208 The Citadel 7 31.8, 235 Virginia Military 6 5.0
92% 169 Davidson 38 35.5, 231 Austin Peay 22 6.0
92% 148 Southwest Missouri Sta 62 59.5, 236 Tennessee - Martin 7 7.5
92% 94 Georgetown 49 49.8, 233 Canisius 6 8.1
92% 68 Appalachian State 34 43.5, 205 Western Carolina 10 9.4
92% 64 Texas Christian 27 33.1, 192 North Texas 3 5.7
92% 62 Fairfield 42 44.3, 204 La Salle 0 10.7
92% 42 Virginia 50 52.3, 223 Buffalo 21 5.8
92% 35 Air Force 35 35.3, 188 Nevada - Las Vegas 16 3.6
92% 26 Colorado 37 45.6, 195 Baylor 0 11.6
92% 21 Georgia Southern 51 59.5, 221 Jacksonville State 14 14.8
92% 20 Southern Mississippi 48 51.7, 218 Southwestern Louisiana 0 3.0
92% 7 Florida 20 37.5, 137 South Carolina 3 6.0
92% 5 Florida State 49 39.4, 69 Maryland 10 10.8
92% 4 Wisconsin 41 48.3, 143 Iowa 3 4.0
91% 12 Minnesota 44 42.3, 111 Indiana 20 16.4
90% 152 Samford 28 36.7, 229 Nicholls State 24 12.4
89% 200 Stony Brook 24 31.9, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 8.4
89% 157 Eastern Washington 30 36.3, 224 Weber State 27 14.7
89% 11 Texas 58 38.9, 83 Texas Tech 7 16.6
88% 135 Akron 37 39.1, 207 Kent State 34 18.3
88% 43 Colgate 38 38.7, 138 Towson 14 17.9
88% 18 Michigan State 34 33.6, 116 Northwestern 0 13.0
86% 158 Bowling Green 35 35.2, 219 Ball State 14 16.8
86% 104 Illinois State 24 42.3, 212 Eastern Illinois 17 23.6
85% 113 Brown 35 35.5, 215 Dartmouth 28 17.8
84% 51 Memphis State 14 30.6, 126 Army 10 13.9
83% 110 Saint John's 20 16.3, 202 Siena 7 5.2
83% 99 Delaware 35 30.5, 167 Rhode Island 0 14.8
83% 77 Yale 23 30.2, 172 Princeton 21 13.7
83% 50 Furman 30 38.6, 118 Wofford 3 22.4
82% 174 California Poly 24 32.7, 228 Saint Mary's 21 17.5
82% 41 Utah 52 33.7, 106 New Mexico 7 17.8
81% 32 Lehigh 48 35.8, 112 Bucknell 27 21.8
80% 147 Cornell 31 29.7, 197 Columbia 29 16.0
79% 122 Southern Methodist 58 27.9, 183 California State - Nor 16 14.6
79% 101 Central Florida 39 33.8, 185 Middle Tennessee State 14 21.2
79% 96 Duquesne 28 35.7, 181 Lafayette 17 22.8
79% 88 Southern 23 22.9, 165 Texas Southern 14 10.8
79% 81 Tennessee State 42 41.8, 133 Murray State 41 29.6
79% 78 Boise State 45 31.5, 125 New Mexico State 26 19.0
79% 30 East Carolina 48 29.3, 79 Cincinnati 34 16.9
78% 211 Alabama State 42 24.9, 225 Prairie View 27 14.2
78% 10 Oklahoma 31 31.7, 56 Iowa State 10 20.1
77% 44 Southern California 31 28.5, 119 Washington State 28 18.5
76% 98 Navy 45 36.3, 136 Tulane 21 26.8
76% 29 Oregon State 28 32.0, 54 Arizona 20 21.4
76% 22 Marshall 31 30.3, 72 Western Michigan 17 20.4
75% 87 James Madison 31 26.5, 121 Richmond 13 17.6
75% 55 Hofstra 42 23.4, 120 South Florida 23 14.7
75% 38 Massachusetts 25 29.2, 97 William & Mary 16 20.1
74% 179 Bethune - Cookman 26 30.4, 220 Norfolk State 6 21.7
74% 2 Virginia Tech 43 26.9, 9 Miami - Florida 10 17.3
70% 84 Elon 41 37.5, 102 Morehead State 6 30.9
69% 198 Central Connecticut 28 22.9, 216 Monmouth 21 16.6
68% 19 Alabama 19 22.6, 33 Mississippi State 7 16.7
67% 149 Maine 20 32.0, 189 Northeastern 14 26.0
67% 108 Toledo 44 22.6, 128 Northern Illinois 14 17.1
66% 25 Oregon 24 25.0, 63 California 19 19.9
64% 39 Louisiana Tech 41 36.5, 80 Alabama - Birmingham 20 32.2
64% 1 Nebraska 41 22.7, 3 Kansas State 15 18.3
62% 186 Holy Cross 37 24.7, 210 Fordham 14 21.4
62% 173 East Tennessee State 28 30.6, 175 Chattanooga 14 27.0
62% 146 Southern Utah 32 24.1, 178 Southwest Texas State 28 20.6
58% 34 Texas A&M 51 20.2, 66 Missouri 14 18.8
57% 95 Western Illinois 46 27.1, 85 Northern Iowa 27 25.7
57% 70 Oklahoma State 45 25.2, 59 Kansas 13 23.8
56% 140 New Hampshire 43 30.3, 159 Connecticut 18 29.1
55% 194 Howard 42 28.9, 206 Morgan State 38 27.9
55% 139 Northern Arizona 40 35.5, 127 Portland State 24 34.6
52% 160 Alabama A&M 35 24.0, 171 Alcorn State 26 23.7
52% 129 Eastern Kentucky 23 17.4, 154 Tennessee Tech 20 17.1
48% 187 Marist 40 21.6, 196 Iona 29 22.1
48% 23 Georgia Tech 45 34.0, 16 Clemson 42 34.5
47% 168 Arkansas State 44 32.0, 156 Nevada - Reno 28 32.6
46% 191 Central Michigan 29 25.1, 162 Eastern Michigan 26 25.9
42% 57 Kentucky 19 26.6, 67 Vanderbilt 17 28.2
40% 82 Boston College 34 23.5, 58 West Virginia 17 25.6
38% 153 Sam Houston State 21 30.8, 115 Northwestern State 0 34.2
38% 52 Stanford 50 26.7, 47 Arizona State 30 30.0
37% 130 Pennsylvania 21 19.2, 124 Harvard 17 23.3
36% 213 South Carolina State 34 29.9, 182 Delaware State 14 34.2
34% 48 Auburn 38 17.8, 37 Georgia 21 22.9
33% 234 Sacred Heart 37 13.4, 230 Saint Peter's 18 18.0
33% 227 Idaho State 29 34.8, 214 Montana State 13 39.9
32% 184 Northeast Louisiana 37 15.6, 164 Tulsa 34 21.5
29% 190 San Diego 31 15.5, 134 Wagner 12 22.3
28% 132 Youngstown State 28 20.6, 105 Villanova 21 28.7
28% 131 Texas - El Paso 30 18.5, 103 Rice 29 26.2
28% 27 Arkansas 28 21.8, 6 Tennessee 24 30.1
28% 17 Michigan 31 17.2, 8 Penn State 27 24.9
27% 163 Western Kentucky 40 19.1, 144 Indiana State 34 27.5
26% 123 Hawaii 31 22.9, 60 Fresno State 24 31.6
24% 161 Ohio 40 21.9, 91 Miami - Ohio 28 31.6
24% 114 Duke 48 12.4, 46 Wake Forest 35 21.5
24% 107 Houston 20 14.4, 71 Louisiana State 7 23.6
24% 92 Pittsburgh 37 19.4, 28 Notre Dame 27 29.1
22% 141 North Carolina 10 15.8, 74 North Carolina State 6 26.8
22% 61 Illinois 46 16.0, 24 Ohio State 20 27.5
21% 117 California - Los Angel 23 19.9, 36 Washington 20 32.6
21% 73 Wyoming 31 21.4, 14 Brigham Young 17 33.9
18% 109 Idaho 33 27.2, 40 Montana 30 42.5
16% 89 North Carolina A&T 30 20.3, 13 Florida A&M 15 37.5
10% 201 McNeese State 24 8.2, 75 Troy State 7 32.1
9% 203 Rutgers 24 16.4, 65 Syracuse 21 41.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.04 18 0.86 35 0.75 20 1.06 18 0.97 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 105 72 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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