prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 148 Valparaiso 52 38.6, 230 Austin Peay 23 10.3
92% 98 Georgetown 52 38.9, 211 La Salle 7 10.9
92% 95 Duquesne 68 59.7, 235 Canisius 12 9.2
92% 92 Troy State 35 43.4, 216 Jacksonville State 16 15.1
92% 58 Fairfield 45 49.9, 232 Saint Peter's 18 5.2
92% 56 Montana 49 51.6, 223 Montana State 3 17.4
92% 43 Oklahoma State 34 43.2, 207 Baylor 14 9.8
92% 34 Massachusetts 62 42.1, 170 Connecticut 20 11.3
92% 27 Lehigh 14 47.5, 174 Lafayette 12 13.2
92% 15 Clemson 31 31.8, 140 South Carolina 21 6.3
92% 12 Minnesota 25 38.4, 142 Iowa 21 10.4
92% 11 Miami - Florida 55 52.5, 193 Rutgers 0 6.9
92% 4 Kansas State 66 44.1, 97 Missouri 0 13.8
92% 2 Virginia Tech 62 48.2, 135 Temple 7 7.2
91% 112 Miami - Ohio 43 40.7, 221 Buffalo 0 13.1
91% 93 Robert Morris 50 33.2, 199 Stony Brook 19 8.3
91% 61 Fresno State 63 45.3, 173 San Jose State 12 20.5
91% 59 Jackson State 58 43.7, 181 Alcorn State 6 18.2
91% 45 Colgate 45 37.9, 176 Holy Cross 26 14.1
91% 35 Furman 40 44.7, 187 Chattanooga 35 19.2
90% 110 Saint John's 47 26.9, 204 Iona 33 5.2
90% 78 North Carolina A&T 27 36.8, 200 South Carolina State 7 12.2
90% 26 Florida A&M 63 47.5, 161 Bethune - Cookman 14 20.5
88% 77 Tennessee State 35 41.1, 203 Southeast Missouri Sta 28 20.3
88% 71 San Diego State 37 29.4, 192 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 9.3
87% 120 New Mexico State 22 28.5, 202 North Texas 9 8.9
87% 116 Bucknell 45 36.9, 220 Fordham 15 17.5
87% 66 Appalachian State 28 34.6, 186 Liberty 12 15.0
87% 44 Illinois 29 30.9, 125 Northwestern 7 11.4
86% 167 Texas Southern 22 27.3, 224 Norfolk State 6 9.4
86% 57 Wyoming 42 32.3, 139 New Mexico 28 12.7
86% 38 Washington 24 35.6, 114 Washington State 14 17.3
85% 123 Brown 23 38.7, 196 Columbia 6 21.1
84% 53 Texas Christian 52 33.9, 128 Texas - El Paso 24 17.2
84% 16 Purdue 30 44.9, 107 Indiana 24 28.6
80% 182 McNeese State 38 25.2, 227 Nicholls State 0 12.6
80% 6 Tennessee 56 33.6, 51 Kentucky 21 20.4
79% 168 Hampton 34 30.0, 212 Morgan State 14 17.5
79% 49 Southern California 17 30.0, 106 California - Los Angel 7 16.9
79% 32 East Carolina 23 30.4, 76 North Carolina State 6 17.4
78% 87 Yale 24 27.9, 136 Harvard 21 16.5
77% 13 Michigan 24 28.2, 37 Ohio State 17 17.2
75% 137 Northern Arizona 30 38.4, 201 California State - Nor 10 29.3
75% 81 Alabama - Birmingham 23 35.0, 147 Tulane 20 26.0
75% 48 Hofstra 34 25.8, 82 James Madison 16 16.7
75% 23 Arkansas 14 24.3, 39 Mississippi State 9 15.4
74% 183 Marist 29 23.3, 209 Siena 7 15.2
73% 115 New Hampshire 31 29.0, 145 Maine 20 20.7
72% 42 Stanford 31 27.5, 65 California 13 19.6
71% 102 Southern Methodist 28 28.1, 163 Tulsa 14 20.3
68% 18 Southern Mississippi 30 29.6, 46 Louisville 27 23.2
67% 208 Western Carolina 24 23.8, 217 The Citadel 17 17.9
67% 184 Central Michigan 27 24.1, 218 Ball State 21 18.8
66% 144 Northern Illinois 30 31.3, 158 Eastern Michigan 23 25.6
66% 29 Oregon 25 32.5, 33 Oregon State 14 27.4
63% 143 Sacramento State 31 28.4, 179 California Poly 26 24.4
63% 86 Western Illinois 24 27.0, 90 Drake 0 22.5
63% 63 Boise State 45 31.2, 100 Idaho 14 27.5
63% 20 Alabama 28 22.7, 41 Auburn 17 18.6
61% 160 Samford 19 18.5, 157 Tennessee Tech 15 16.2
61% 151 Southwest Missouri Sta 31 33.6, 149 Indiana State 14 30.8
61% 73 Kansas 31 24.5, 68 Iowa State 28 21.6
61% 3 Florida State 30 22.7, 9 Florida 23 19.7
60% 99 William & Mary 31 26.6, 124 Richmond 14 24.0
58% 91 Houston 26 20.7, 117 Army 14 19.1
55% 195 Delaware State 42 35.5, 188 Howard 25 34.5
55% 88 Toledo 45 21.9, 75 Western Michigan 21 21.0
55% 47 Colorado State 41 19.5, 40 Air Force 21 18.7
54% 153 Utah State 37 28.9, 166 Nevada - Reno 35 28.0
54% 108 Hawaii 48 24.1, 89 Navy 41 23.4
54% 14 Michigan State 35 20.8, 10 Penn State 28 20.1
53% 185 Middle Tennessee State 24 25.6, 169 East Tennessee State 7 25.1
51% 55 Virginia 34 26.9, 69 Maryland 30 26.7
50% 131 Southern Utah 51 39.8, 132 Morehead State 33 39.8
50% 64 Memphis State 21 18.7, 83 Cincinnati 13 18.7
48% 171 Southern Illinois 52 36.4, 155 Western Kentucky 14 36.7
46% 133 Stephen F. Austin 29 25.5, 150 Northwestern State 14 26.3
40% 130 North Carolina 38 19.2, 105 Duke 0 21.2
39% 113 Villanova 51 25.8, 84 Delaware 45 28.6
38% 191 Northeastern 20 19.8, 190 Rhode Island 10 23.5
38% 28 Utah 20 26.3, 24 Brigham Young 17 30.1
31% 213 Charleston Southern 37 20.3, 197 Jacksonville 17 27.2
30% 177 Southwest Texas State 20 17.1, 118 Sam Houston State 14 24.0
29% 210 Dartmouth 19 15.5, 162 Princeton 18 22.3
28% 52 Georgia 20 21.9, 31 Mississippi 17 29.9
25% 159 Cornell 20 19.3, 119 Pennsylvania 12 28.9
24% 178 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 11.8, 154 Alabama A&M 17 20.0
24% 74 Wake Forest 26 25.6, 22 Georgia Tech 23 36.4
23% 70 Boston College 31 20.5, 36 Notre Dame 29 31.1
19% 214 Southwestern Louisiana 37 22.1, 122 Wofford 34 36.8
19% 156 Bowling Green 33 20.0, 94 Central Florida 30 35.0
14% 205 Eastern Illinois 20 17.7, 129 Eastern Kentucky 14 36.8
9% 103 Texas Tech 38 13.0, 7 Oklahoma 28 38.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.33 18 1.22 22 0.90 17 0.96 22 1.04 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 93 74 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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