prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 3 Kansas State 24 38.8, 45 Washington 20 16.3
82% 12 Georgia Southern 59 35.2, 62 Youngstown State 24 20.1
80% 6 Wisconsin 17 37.0, 31 Stanford 9 23.1
79% 16 Colorado 62 32.2, 63 Boston College 28 19.4
79% 5 Miami - Florida 28 41.7, 27 Georgia Tech 13 29.3
76% 1 Nebraska 31 26.2, 7 Tennessee 21 16.9
68% 19 Southern Mississippi 23 24.7, 36 Colorado State 17 18.7
67% 28 Illinois 63 33.7, 55 Virginia 21 27.9
67% 26 Utah 17 29.7, 53 Fresno State 16 24.1
63% 11 Penn State 24 22.1, 20 Texas A&M 0 18.1
59% 25 Marshall 21 21.5, 32 Brigham Young 3 19.8
58% 13 Michigan State 37 22.6, 15 Florida 34 21.0
45% 54 Boise State 34 34.5, 48 Louisville 31 35.4
44% 21 Oregon 24 26.3, 17 Minnesota 20 27.5
40% 14 Michigan 35 21.6, 10 Alabama 34 23.6
38% 69 Wake Forest 23 17.8, 51 Arizona State 3 20.9
38% 34 Mississippi State 17 17.6, 22 Clemson 7 20.6
37% 76 Syracuse 20 25.4, 59 Kentucky 13 29.2
33% 49 Texas Christian 28 20.1, 24 East Carolina 14 26.0
33% 4 Florida State 46 20.6, 2 Virginia Tech 29 26.1
27% 46 Georgia 28 26.8, 18 Purdue 25 34.8
22% 156 Hampton 24 17.3, 86 Southern 3 29.2
22% 33 Mississippi 27 20.2, 9 Oklahoma 25 31.6
18% 41 Arkansas 27 20.7, 8 Texas 6 35.6
16% 112 Hawaii 23 18.7, 30 Oregon State 17 35.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.69 9 0.68 6 0.65 5 0.72 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 25 12 0.68
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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