prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
74% 12 Tampa Bay 41 17.6, 23 Chicago 0 8.6
69% 17 Carolina 38 30.4, 27 San Francisco 22 22.0
68% 3 Buffalo 27 21.5, 16 Green Bay 18 15.7
67% 7 Minnesota 13 28.8, 19 Miami 7 21.4
67% 1 St. Louis 37 26.0, 15 Seattle 34 18.9
66% 10 Denver 42 24.6, 26 Atlanta 14 16.5
61% 11 New York Jets 20 18.9, 13 New England 19 16.3
59% 6 Tennessee 17 22.7, 5 Kansas City 14 20.7
53% 4 Oakland 38 25.6, 9 Indianapolis 31 24.9
50% 20 Detroit 15 23.3, 14 Washington 10 23.3
41% 31 Cleveland 24 19.9, 30 Cincinnati 7 22.0
40% 25 New York Giants 33 17.1, 24 Philadelphia 18 19.4
40% 8 Baltimore 39 16.1, 2 Jacksonville 36 18.6
34% 28 Arizona 32 15.7, 18 Dallas 31 21.7
24% 29 New Orleans 28 11.7, 22 San Diego 27 21.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.71 8 1.15 2 0.67 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 9 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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