2000 Week 4 (24-25 Sep) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 86%   3 Baltimore               37 29.8,    31 Cincinnati               0  6.3
 80%   6 Oakland                 36 31.0,    29 Cleveland               10 14.0
 75%   2 St. Louis               41 31.9,    22 Atlanta                 20 21.0
 74%   7 Miami                   10 19.5,    15 New England              3 11.2
 70%   9 Tennessee               23 22.9,    25 Pittsburgh              20 14.2
 65%  17 Philadelphia            21 23.0,    28 New Orleans              7 17.8
 64%  19 Detroit                 21 19.0,    27 Chicago                 14 14.9
 63%  16 Seattle                 20 18.3,    24 San Diego               12 14.1
 61%  20 Green Bay               29 22.6,    26 Arizona                  3 19.8
 52%  13 Indianapolis            43 22.4,     8 Jacksonville            14 21.9

 39%   5 Kansas City             23 22.1,     4 Denver                  22 25.6
 36%  21 Washington              16 17.9,    14 New York Giants          6 22.6
 30%  30 San Francisco           41 21.1,    23 Dallas                  24 30.2
 27%  12 New York Jets           21 11.6,     1 Tampa Bay               17 19.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                1 1.94   8 0.97   3 0.90   2 1.21   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected):  14  10 1.04

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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