prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 St. Louis 57 35.8, 25 San Diego 31 15.9
85% 7 Miami 31 24.9, 31 Cincinnati 16 5.1
81% 4 Baltimore 12 28.1, 27 Cleveland 0 10.4
74% 6 Kansas City 24 24.2, 16 Seattle 17 15.9
72% 15 Philadelphia 38 21.3, 22 Atlanta 10 14.0
72% 12 Tennessee 28 21.1, 21 New York Giants 14 13.4
68% 24 San Francisco 27 27.9, 30 Arizona 20 20.1
61% 11 Minnesota 31 22.1, 20 Detroit 24 19.3
60% 3 Indianapolis 18 23.5, 10 Buffalo 16 21.0
27% 23 Pittsburgh 24 15.4, 14 Jacksonville 13 24.6
26% 17 New England 28 15.4, 5 Denver 19 23.9
25% 19 Washington 20 11.2, 1 Tampa Bay 17 20.8
24% 26 Dallas 16 18.9, 18 Carolina 13 29.4
18% 28 Chicago 27 9.1, 13 Green Bay 24 24.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.67 2 1.55 7 0.58 4 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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