prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 3 Denver 44 35.1, 30 Cleveland 10 10.4
89% 14 Pittsburgh 15 25.9, 31 Cincinnati 0 5.2
89% 2 St. Louis 45 43.2, 26 Atlanta 29 20.0
84% 6 Minnesota 28 32.8, 28 Chicago 16 16.8
83% 15 Buffalo 27 24.2, 27 San Diego 24 9.1
82% 11 Philadelphia 33 26.4, 29 Arizona 14 11.9
75% 18 New York Giants 19 23.6, 25 Dallas 14 15.2
69% 7 Indianapolis 37 26.3, 22 Seattle 24 19.7
65% 12 Tennessee 27 23.0, 17 Jacksonville 13 17.9
64% 21 Green Bay 31 28.0, 23 San Francisco 28 23.0
38% 9 Oakland 20 21.7, 8 Kansas City 17 25.1
36% 24 New Orleans 24 15.4, 19 Carolina 6 19.3
30% 16 New York Jets 34 11.8, 10 New England 17 17.7
24% 13 Washington 10 10.2, 1 Baltimore 3 18.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 6 0.76 2 0.66 5 1.17 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 10 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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