prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 Oakland 15 30.8, 26 San Diego 13 12.5
80% 3 Kansas City 24 27.3, 25 Seattle 19 13.6
79% 22 New Orleans 21 26.8, 31 Arizona 10 14.1
76% 8 St. Louis 34 47.9, 24 San Francisco 24 38.7
76% 5 Miami 28 24.9, 20 Green Bay 20 15.0
68% 9 Indianapolis 30 28.8, 15 Detroit 18 22.5
60% 29 Cincinnati 12 18.7, 30 Cleveland 3 16.5
59% 11 Tampa Bay 41 23.9, 12 Minnesota 13 22.0
46% 2 Tennessee 27 17.9, 6 Washington 21 18.7
39% 18 New York Giants 24 13.2, 14 Philadelphia 7 15.4
38% 17 Buffalo 23 20.0, 10 New York Jets 20 23.5
37% 7 Pittsburgh 9 5.9, 4 Baltimore 6 8.5
34% 23 Jacksonville 23 21.4, 21 Dallas 17 26.9
29% 28 Atlanta 13 14.3, 19 Carolina 12 20.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.88 6 0.53 4 0.99 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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