prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 14 Minnesota 31 36.4, 30 Arizona 14 17.1
83% 3 Miami 17 26.4, 27 San Diego 7 11.5
79% 15 Buffalo 20 22.6, 25 Chicago 3 11.5
78% 18 Detroit 13 25.6, 28 Atlanta 10 14.6
75% 5 Tampa Bay 20 25.3, 17 Green Bay 15 16.5
71% 23 Dallas 23 21.9, 29 Cincinnati 6 15.1
60% 8 Indianapolis 23 31.7, 11 New York Jets 15 29.3
40% 19 New Orleans 20 14.5, 21 Carolina 10 16.5
39% 13 St. Louis 38 25.2, 10 New York Giants 24 27.9
38% 7 Denver 27 24.4, 1 Oakland 24 27.8
34% 6 Baltimore 24 10.8, 4 Tennessee 23 14.8
33% 24 Seattle 28 16.4, 22 Jacksonville 21 21.4
23% 26 San Francisco 21 24.5, 12 Kansas City 7 35.6
22% 16 Philadelphia 26 5.9, 2 Pittsburgh 23 14.5
13% 31 Cleveland 19 6.7, 20 New England 11 23.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 6 0.27 6 0.87 3 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 7 0.64
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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