prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 1 Baltimore 44 24.6, 31 Cleveland 7 3.0
86% 2 Oakland 41 30.3, 28 Atlanta 14 12.6
82% 16 New York Giants 31 25.2, 30 Arizona 7 11.3
81% 10 Pittsburgh 48 18.8, 29 Cincinnati 28 7.3
81% 4 New York Jets 17 23.8, 26 Chicago 10 10.5
73% 8 Denver 38 29.1, 23 Seattle 31 20.7
69% 18 Detroit 34 21.1, 22 New England 9 15.1
67% 12 Minnesota 27 26.9, 25 Dallas 15 21.3
65% 5 Tampa Bay 31 20.5, 13 Buffalo 17 16.0
52% 21 Carolina 31 18.5, 15 Green Bay 14 18.1
40% 7 Miami 17 19.3, 9 Indianapolis 14 21.6
38% 27 San Diego 17 19.3, 19 Kansas City 16 22.7
33% 17 New Orleans 31 29.7, 11 St. Louis 24 35.0
32% 20 Jacksonville 16 21.1, 3 Tennessee 13 27.6
31% 14 Philadelphia 23 13.9, 6 Washington 20 19.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.92 8 0.57 1 1.36 4 1.21 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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