prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 20 Jacksonville 48 29.2, 31 Cleveland 0 9.9
84% 3 Tampa Bay 27 26.2, 25 Dallas 7 10.3
73% 29 Cincinnati 24 22.0, 30 Arizona 13 14.6
65% 11 Minnesota 24 26.3, 18 Detroit 17 21.3
62% 6 New York Jets 27 23.9, 9 Indianapolis 17 20.6
59% 4 Miami 33 16.8, 15 Buffalo 6 15.2
56% 23 Seattle 30 18.7, 28 Atlanta 10 17.7
56% 19 Carolina 16 29.7, 16 St. Louis 3 28.5
51% 5 Tennessee 15 18.2, 13 Philadelphia 13 18.1
48% 7 Denver 38 25.2, 10 New Orleans 23 25.5
46% 21 Green Bay 28 17.9, 22 Chicago 6 18.6
38% 27 San Francisco 45 18.8, 24 San Diego 17 21.9
37% 12 Pittsburgh 21 19.6, 2 Oakland 20 23.8
36% 26 New England 30 17.6, 17 Kansas City 24 21.6
32% 14 New York Giants 9 12.9, 8 Washington 7 17.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.22 6 0.52 1 1.37 2 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 9 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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