prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 14 Philadelphia 35 30.1, 31 Cleveland 24 7.1
90% 12 Jacksonville 44 35.4, 30 Arizona 10 11.8
89% 1 Baltimore 24 27.1, 27 San Diego 3 5.9
88% 7 Tennessee 35 28.1, 29 Cincinnati 3 8.4
77% 8 Denver 31 33.2, 23 Seattle 24 22.5
72% 10 Indianapolis 44 26.3, 21 Buffalo 20 18.5
64% 2 Oakland 31 23.4, 5 New York Jets 7 18.9
60% 25 Chicago 24 16.3, 24 New England 17 14.3
59% 17 Green Bay 26 21.1, 16 Detroit 13 19.4
57% 18 New Orleans 31 22.5, 20 San Francisco 27 21.3
47% 22 Kansas City 15 17.3, 15 Carolina 14 17.9
44% 19 St. Louis 40 34.0, 9 Minnesota 29 35.0
41% 3 Tampa Bay 16 14.6, 4 Miami 13 16.1
39% 13 New York Giants 30 15.0, 6 Pittsburgh 10 17.3
25% 26 Dallas 32 12.3, 11 Washington 13 20.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.70 3 1.08 3 0.89 3 1.12 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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