prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 3 Tennessee 24 33.9, 31 Cleveland 0 6.3
92% 1 Baltimore 13 34.3, 30 Arizona 7 6.0
83% 15 New Orleans 23 24.9, 28 Atlanta 7 10.8
82% 14 Carolina 30 21.0, 27 San Diego 22 7.8
75% 4 Tampa Bay 38 33.0, 16 St. Louis 35 23.7
71% 8 New York Giants 17 20.0, 24 Dallas 13 13.7
67% 20 San Francisco 17 22.9, 25 Chicago 0 17.3
64% 13 Pittsburgh 24 20.1, 19 Washington 3 16.1
39% 12 Green Bay 33 23.3, 11 Minnesota 28 26.2
37% 9 Indianapolis 20 17.3, 5 Miami 13 20.7
36% 22 Kansas City 20 27.0, 10 Denver 7 31.5
33% 26 New England 13 16.7, 23 Buffalo 10 22.2
30% 17 Detroit 10 14.7, 7 New York Jets 7 20.7
24% 21 Seattle 27 18.3, 2 Oakland 24 27.5
17% 29 Cincinnati 17 14.0, 6 Jacksonville 14 29.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 7 0.44 3 0.90 3 0.81 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 8 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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