prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
72% 3 Oakland 27 23.5, 5 Miami 0 16.2
63% 15 Minnesota 34 25.6, 17 New Orleans 16 21.5
59% 9 New York Giants 20 18.1, 8 Philadelphia 10 16.5
28% 2 Baltimore 24 9.3, 1 Tennessee 10 15.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 1 1.58 2 0.70 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 3 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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