prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 4 Green Bay 37 32.0, 29 Washington 0 5.6
85% 1 Indianapolis 42 41.5, 28 Buffalo 26 12.0
80% 9 Denver 38 39.5, 30 Arizona 17 17.4
76% 11 San Diego 32 23.0, 26 Dallas 21 10.3
72% 5 Jacksonville 13 26.8, 13 Tennessee 6 16.5
68% 10 St. Louis 30 31.9, 19 San Francisco 26 23.1
66% 17 Chicago 17 21.7, 23 Minnesota 10 16.1
60% 3 Miami 18 27.7, 6 Oakland 15 24.1
57% 22 New York Jets 10 26.3, 25 New England 3 24.4
50% 18 Philadelphia 27 12.4, 21 Seattle 3 12.5
45% 14 New York Giants 13 20.7, 16 Kansas City 3 21.8
32% 31 Cleveland 24 8.0, 24 Detroit 14 14.3
23% 20 Cincinnati 21 8.8, 7 Baltimore 10 19.9
21% 27 Atlanta 24 7.5, 12 Carolina 16 20.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 4 1.15 4 0.66 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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