prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 7 Oakland 38 33.1, 29 Seattle 14 10.2
85% 6 Philadelphia 40 23.6, 25 Dallas 18 6.5
80% 1 Green Bay 28 24.0, 16 Carolina 7 9.7
77% 19 Atlanta 34 27.4, 31 Arizona 14 14.9
76% 21 Kansas City 45 18.5, 30 Washington 13 9.0
60% 14 San Diego 28 21.3, 15 Cincinnati 14 19.1
57% 9 New York Giants 21 11.8, 8 New Orleans 13 10.5
55% 23 Pittsburgh 20 11.6, 27 Buffalo 3 10.9
39% 12 St. Louis 42 25.8, 5 Miami 10 28.9
33% 24 San Francisco 19 16.3, 17 New York Jets 17 22.7
30% 20 Minnesota 20 14.6, 10 Tampa Bay 16 21.5
27% 11 Baltimore 20 19.1, 4 Denver 13 28.0
17% 22 New England 44 18.6, 3 Indianapolis 13 35.4
10% 28 Cleveland 23 3.5, 2 Jacksonville 14 27.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.75 3 0.00 3 0.88 4 0.90 1 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.78
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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