prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 Oakland 38 32.5, 19 Denver 28 13.9
81% 8 Miami 23 23.8, 28 Carolina 6 10.5
79% 7 Philadelphia 21 23.6, 31 Arizona 7 10.4
75% 9 New England 24 26.3, 30 Atlanta 10 17.4
70% 21 New York Giants 27 19.2, 27 Dallas 24 13.1
67% 4 Green Bay 21 24.0, 6 Tampa Bay 20 18.4
62% 13 Indianapolis 30 29.0, 23 Buffalo 14 25.1
62% 10 Chicago 27 19.5, 17 Cleveland 21 16.4
53% 29 San Francisco 21 27.7, 26 Detroit 13 27.1
40% 22 Tennessee 28 19.5, 15 Jacksonville 24 21.7
37% 24 Washington 27 19.1, 16 Seattle 14 23.3
36% 18 New York Jets 16 18.5, 14 New Orleans 9 23.1
33% 20 Kansas City 25 19.5, 12 San Diego 20 25.6
28% 5 Baltimore 13 11.7, 2 Pittsburgh 10 18.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.89 6 0.78 4 1.01 2 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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