prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 Tampa Bay 15 30.2, 27 Detroit 12 10.0
79% 13 Jacksonville 14 23.1, 31 Cincinnati 10 11.1
78% 7 Philadelphia 24 22.2, 18 San Diego 14 11.4
78% 6 Oakland 28 27.7, 20 Kansas City 26 16.1
75% 9 New England 27 23.6, 19 Cleveland 16 14.2
75% 1 St. Louis 27 33.0, 5 San Francisco 14 23.2
74% 12 Miami 41 30.9, 22 Indianapolis 6 21.8
71% 4 Pittsburgh 18 19.7, 10 New York Jets 7 13.2
68% 8 Green Bay 17 22.0, 14 Chicago 7 16.2
64% 16 Denver 20 23.1, 23 Seattle 7 18.5
60% 17 New Orleans 28 20.6, 29 Atlanta 10 18.3
41% 30 Buffalo 25 18.3, 26 Carolina 24 20.0
41% 24 Washington 20 18.3, 25 Arizona 10 19.9
38% 21 Minnesota 42 23.9, 11 Tennessee 24 27.8
35% 28 Dallas 20 15.6, 15 New York Giants 13 20.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 5 0.94 7 1.32 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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