prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 1 St. Louis 31 39.2, 27 Atlanta 13 17.2
82% 7 New England 38 25.1, 31 Carolina 6 10.4
80% 5 Pittsburgh 28 27.8, 25 Cleveland 7 14.0
79% 8 Baltimore 19 24.8, 26 Minnesota 3 13.1
73% 12 San Francisco 38 27.9, 29 New Orleans 0 19.6
69% 18 Miami 34 21.7, 24 Buffalo 7 15.6
67% 15 Washington 20 22.2, 21 Arizona 17 16.6
67% 3 Chicago 33 18.9, 9 Jacksonville 13 14.1
67% 2 Green Bay 34 21.6, 14 New York Giants 25 16.4
61% 16 Seattle 21 23.2, 20 Kansas City 18 20.2
53% 19 Indianapolis 29 31.0, 13 Denver 10 30.5
46% 30 Detroit 15 18.4, 28 Dallas 10 19.0
30% 10 Philadelphia 17 14.1, 4 Tampa Bay 13 20.1
28% 23 Cincinnati 23 15.8, 11 Tennessee 21 23.7
27% 17 New York Jets 24 15.0, 6 Oakland 22 22.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.94 6 1.25 4 0.67 3 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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