prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
68% 1 New England 16 23.1, 7 Oakland 13 17.0
67% 3 St. Louis 45 30.1, 8 Green Bay 17 24.2
62% 5 Pittsburgh 27 18.0, 6 Baltimore 10 15.2
55% 2 Philadelphia 33 16.3, 4 Chicago 19 15.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.82 3 1.53 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 4 1.59
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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